Reptilian Associates Year 2000 Information

For a look at grocery stores and Y2k by a store manager of a major chain, go to grocery stores and y2k. Here's a quote from the article:"In any typical week, we're out of stock on somewhere around 2% of the SKUs. Some grocery stores are higher, few are lower. By 12/1/1999, I would expect that figure to rise to 40%. By the end of the month, I would not be surprised to see out-of-stocks at 75%, and whatever remains will be the slower-moving items. Keep in mind, too, that that could mean three to four times my typical sales for that week, which is already the best or second best of the year. That means extremely crowded aisles and extremely long lines. Beware."

Here are another couple of infrastructure posts, food distributor and Gas distribution at major-chain owned gas station. The good news about gas distribution is that independent gas stations are generally older technology, i.e., they should be able to sell gasoline, on a cash basis at least if power stays on.

This section is written on the assumption that 1/1/2000 will be a difficult experience that can be prepared for affordably, not the end of the world or at least of technological civilization. It assumes that major services which are interrupted around you will be either be restored within a few days or a week or two or that your area will be receiving disaster relief from areas less affected within a few weeks at worst.

Power may be down, your phone may be down, the food chain might go down, emergency services might go down temporarily. Get some of your money out of the bank well in advance, or at the very least get hard copy records (account statements) close to the end of Dec. 1999. Pay bills and get written receipts.

By the way, according to FEMA, anyone requiring any type of life support that uses electricity should register with your local Emergency Management office -- regardless of possible circumstances, presumably to make your power the first priority for restoration in case of a power outage. If it were my life, I'd arrange for a solar panel and/or generator and/or large battery pack and/or a hospital stay for New Year's Eve 2000. Let's hope you won't need any of what I recommend here, but while we know when 1/1/2000 is coming, there is a disaster in your future no matter where you live, so if you get these items and the power stays on, don't be too disappointed. You'll find a use for this stuff sooner or later. At worst, you can eat it, or donate it to your local food bank. (and take a tax writeoff)

I think the most likely serious problem for most people is a few days of power outage, possibly taking down the water supply, and phones followed by months of occasional brownouts and blackouts.The hardest hit areas are likely to be totally off the grid for weeks or even a couple of months or so. Think in terms of preparing for a 1-2 month camping trip in an area where power probably won't be available. If you've got an RV, you've probably got everything or just about everything I'm suggesting except food and extra water.

However, if the power goes down New Year's Eve 1999, don't panic. There's a good chance that it was turned off on purpose and will be back up within a few minutes or hours. There are going to be a lot of very nervous people in utility power management facilities who will be pulling plugs at the first sign of cascade or other major failures. Looks at this point that some major utility failures are certain. Believe it or not, some utility company information tech people are still trying to convince management that Y2K compliance work needs to start. In most places in the US, that work is already well under way. One reason I assume power failure is most likely is that one Y2K project manager at a major Southeastern US provider said that every electric power plant tested crashed when fed a 1/1/2000 "detonation test" date. He went on to say that the problems found either have been fixed or will be shortly. I believe him, but note that he only speaks for one company. I also believe him when he says that preparation for temporary Y2K related power outages is a good idea no matter where you are. Minor good news is that I saw a report from an association of natural gas distributors that said that their Y2K remediation process is far less complex than the electric process and that they expect to be Y2K ready. The bad news, of course is that there's no way to know if they are telling the truth until some time on 1/1/2000 and the ones that fail may be yours.

Some of the following is based on experience, the stuff I either had access to or wished I had access to when I got to experience a major earthquake a few years ago. By the way, I'd get these items months in advance if possible, there's a good chance that the public panic and panic buying will hit during December 1999. If you decide to get really serious and buy the nitrogen packed foods for long-term storage, I'd order... now would be a good time. Some of the outfits selling this kind of food are already overbooked and are quoting several weeks (e.g. Walden Foods) to fufill orders. The reason is simple. The people who already do business with these organizations immediately decided to stock up on food as soon as they heard Y2K was likely to be a problem. (7/3/1999)

Also, whatever you get, get spare parts whenever you can. Even if society is pretty much fully operational a month or so after the crash, whatever organization supplies the spare part you need may not be. A word to the wise should be sufficient. (spark plugs, fan belts, fuses, radiator hoses, a tire or two, bulbs, batteries... whatever is most likely to fail on whatever you depend on)

Anyone who says that there is not enough food available to make Y2K preparation possible for every household in the US hasn't checked the facts. We have 51 million metric tons of wheat and 204 million metric tons of maize stored in the USA. We also have quite a few megatons stored of just about everything else we grow in the US. Click here for details. That's about 1 ton for every man, woman, and child in America. Can you eat a ton of food in a couple of months? The problem with food isn't a lack of it, it's that transportation and computer problems mag make it possible for the food to get from storage facilities to your home. If it's at your place already, that ceases to be a problem.

• Get at least one or two months non-perishable food in just in case. Three or more is better. I recommend getting things your family will eat regardless of whether Y2K is a problem or not. Remember that you don't have to buy things labeled "camp food" or "survival food", things like canned foods, dehydrated foods like macaroni and cheese, and many other non-perishable foods are available at any grocery store. Smart shopping (buy cases of tuna and macaroni and cheese on sale, 20 lb and larger bags of rice, beans, etc.) might keep your outlay under $200 for a family of 4 for a month. Unless you try buying at the last minute. If your food supply is largely dehydrated, remember that it takes water to reconstitute them, plan for that when you store water. NOW is a good time to start. Get some cheap multivitamins (the one a day type RDA packages, at least) to make up for any deficiencies in your meal planning.

  Unless you're reading this in late 1999, you don't have to do all your preparation immediately. A painless way to start doing this is to buy a few extra cans or packages of non-perishable food every time you go shopping, put them in a box labeled "emergency supplies", and keep doing this. Sooner or later, you'll want to take stock of what you've got against what you'll need for a full (x) months of food. Other information here or linked to this page will help you figure out what you need.

  It is my understanding that British supermarket chains will be putting out ad campaigns discouraging this kind of preparation, due to the fact that people buying more than usual will cause problems in their supply chain. I would suspect that the same will happen in the USA. I can say that as soon as you see this kind of ad campaign, don't wait another minute, it means you've already waited too long. Of course, this might put you in the middle of a panicked supermarket crowd, on a basis that "Don't worry, there is no cause for alarm" translates to "PANIC TIME!!!". Sorry, best I can do at this point, when I have more solid ideas, I'll post them. Try to make sure the shelf life of whatever you buy will take you at least through 2/2000. The other reason why having a food supply may be helpful even if you're in an area where the lights don't even flicker on 12/31/1999 is that high unemployment is quite likely for a while in 2000, and having a few months of food in place will reduce financial stress on you quite a bit. For more information on food, go here. The other reasons to check into food are probable Y2K-caused inflation and the high probability of very high unemployment, even if your company is Y2K ready, it's suppliers, vendors, transportation, or communications may not be. You'll want to be able to spend money on things other than food if you're without a job for a while.

• Water stored in food grade 55 gallon drums, with a food grade drum type hand pump is one answer. Remember that a 55 gallon drum weighs 440 pounds (200 kg) when full, so this is a solution that probably isn't practical for an apartment, the floor under it might collapse. BTW, a gallon of water a day per person is recommended. (for drinking) Portable tanks, some of which can be collapsed for storage are available at Glitchproof and WaterTanks. Another option is using 5 gallon food-grade plastic buckets. I can't recommend 1 gallon plastic jugs or 5 gallon camp type disposable water containers except as a last resort, I don't see them as stacking well. Storing more than a month or two of water for 2 people is probably not practical in an upper floor apartment, and even that might be pushing your luck. (of course, if you've got ground level storage. . .) Remember to store more ` than you think you need if you possibly can, you might want to wash dishes or yourself. You might want to flush toilets once in a while... and/or use your non-potable water supply, e.g. a water bed, swimming pool, etc.) to flush. Remember if you don't have water pressure, simply pouring a gallon or two of water into the toilet bowl will flush it. Of course, with an extended blackout (days), areas whose sewage is handled by pumps instead of straight gravity feed may wind up with sewage backing up. These areas will have a certain air about them. The other problem with this is that you are going to want to have enough water to be able to both drink and flush. So store more than you think you'll need. Also remember that there are probably non-potable water sources that don't rely on electricity somewhere around where you live. (streams, creeks, rivers, lakes, etc.) So get water purification tablets (or use bleach containing sodium hypochlorite ONLY, no fabric softeners or whiteners) and filters from your local camping supply place and remember that you don't have to purify water you'll be using to flush with. If you live in a detached house, 55 gallon drums at ground level, or even water tanks ranging from a few hundred gallons to thousands might be practical. You know your space. It was suggested to me that plastic water tanks designed for the farm might be an economical alternative to much of what's recommended.
• a camp stove (preferably dual fuel - kerosene / propane) and a few gallons of fuel. Heating oil full size cooking stoves are available for areas where heating oil is common, the Grainger business supply catalog sells them. This might even be a cost-effective alternative for non-Y2K situations, depends on relative energy costs where you live.
• Coleman type lanterns (GET EXTRA MANTLES, preferably heavy-duty) as well as flashlights and lots of extra batteries. Hurricane lanterns / oil lamps are also a good source of heat, get a gallon or two of oil to go with them. Also remember the battery lanterns (I recommend the fluorescent types, more efficient use of battery power) sold by various vendors. The advantages of this type are that you can use various kinds of solar cell packages (e.g. solar C-D-etc. battery chargers) to keep them going. Get extra bulbs / tubes as well. If you can find good plans within your capabilities (can you solder?) for converting flashlights and battery powered lanterns to LEDs (white is best, but you should find high-efficiency yellow and red quite useful) take the time, LEDs give far more light for the same amount of battery power than incandescent bulbs and even fluorescent lanterns do, and they also last far longer. I'll link to plans if I find one I like or I'll write a plan when I've finally gotten around to converting one myself.
• Add a catalytic heater to this. Rechargeable battery poweredcarbon monoxide and fire detectors are a very good thing to go with this. I'm assuming you ordinarily use electric or natural gas heat. If you use fuel oil, just top off the tank and make sure that at least some portion of your house heat isn't dependent on local electric power. (e.g. run it with a generator, there may be other solutions involving lead-acid batteries and alternative 12 volt fan arrangements, if this works, could someone who's tried it catch me in e-mail?) You are not only going to feel cold, but stupid if your fuel oil tank is full and you can't run your heater without electric power. Another alternative is a portabie oil heater that appears to require NO AC power, check the Grainger business supply catalog. Natural gas is not a good choice for a Y2K heat source, the gas supply may fail. Moreover, if you're using a forced air gas central heater, you'll need AC power or alternative arrangements. A gravity type gas heater might be a good candidate for a propane conversion, the difference between a natural gas and propane heater is fairly minor. (different jet size, but this is best done with expert advice or help) Remember, in the Northern Hemisphere, 12/31/1999 is the middle of winter. Don't figure on your fireplace as a good source of heat unless you've already done the wood stove conversion. (the heavy iron / glass door in front of the flame setups) With a conventional fireplace, 80-90% of the heat produced goes straight up the chimney. If you want to use a fireplace for heat, spend a few hundred dollars and convert it to a wood stove early in 1999 at the latest. Making sure your place stays warm may be the most important part of keeping the first part of 2000 comfortable. Warning, if you're planning to buy a pellet stove for Y2K, you'll need some sort of non-utility electric power to make it work. It may be possible to retrofit one for 12 volt power (see fuel oil above) but I can't guarantee it, if you already have one, try it and let me know. If you're rural and don't have a wood stove, portable wood stoves are available for cooking, at this point I don't know who's got them for sale who can deliver in a reasonable length of time. Get a chimney cleaning cleaning service to clean out your chimney some time in November 1999 or a little before.
• If you're using propane, get the adaptor kit that'll allow you to use both small bottles and 5 or larger gallon propane bottles, preferably the one with multiple taps so you can run a heater and/or stove and/or lantern at the same time. For liquid fuel, make sure you've got a few gallons of kerosene. Preferably quite a few. Safe storage means outside (e.g. apartment balcony) or well ventilated shed, don't store indoors unless there's no other choice. (there might not be)
• For gasoline to propane conversion kits, click here.
• One thing which will cut your need for heating energy quite a bit. The obvious: dress warmly during the day, and at night, a good sleeping bag can make very cold indoor temperaturs very comfortable, especially since wind isn't generally a problem indoors.
• Battery powered radios and perhaps a 12 volt TV. Believe it or not, you're still going to want to be entertained, and more importantly, you're going to want to hear any announcement about the situation (e.g. there's a major fire coming your way and it's time to evacuate) the authorities want to tell you. If you want world news, consider getting a short wave receiver. Expect to hear bad news from outside the US. Also, lay in a stock of those good books you always intended to read and never got around to. If it takes a few days to get power back on, you aren't going to be doing business in the meantime. For TV, you're better off with an LCD type with respect to battery consumption, though the screens are really small. The battery power types with a picture tube eat batteries really fast, you want a solar panel or other alternative energy system to keep one running. The cheapest low-power electric solution is rechargable batteries and a solar cell battery charger. You can get these and other things you may find useful for Y2K and other uses at CC Crane.
• If you're running 12 volt battery power stuff, one possibility is to get an extra auto battery, put it in a well ventilated place where sparks and flames are unlikely and use it to power your battery powered stuff. One fully charged 12 volt battery is much more cost-effective than hundreds of C and D cells, and you can use your car to recharge it. However, if you're planning much more than running a battery TV (Battery powered TVs of reasonable size eat batteries quickly!) look into gel cells which will last far longer in this kind of service. With a 12 volt battery, you can get an inverter to run 110 v AC items. If you buy an extra battery for that specific purpose, get deep-cycle batteries. (Check with your local golf cart or other electric vehicle or RV dealer or for prices.) They were made for this kind of service (drain until power almost gone and recharge), ordinary auto batteries will die quickly if used that way. However, you're best off drawing a portion of the battery charge even from the deep cycle units before recharge.
• Solar cells can be an excellent way to keep things like 12 volt and smaller batteries charged. There are any number of places to get panels designed to charge 12 volt batteries. (RV catalogs, electronics parts catalogs (you can find good prices on solar in the "surplus" catalogs IF you know what you're buying.) are the first things that occur to me.) Figure $10-20 a watt or so, remember that you probably aren't going to need a whole lot of watts for this class of service.
• In a rural area, a backup generator may make sense, especially if you've got a farm. If you buy early, you might get a good deal on a used unit in time to do whatever repair / maintenance make sure it's 100% functional on 12/31/1998. What's wrong with a generator is that it rather advertises that you've got electrical power and are probably otherwise in better shape than most people are during the emergency in progress. . . those things are incredibly noisy. Worse, you have to be able to get fuel for them as soon as you're out of whatever you've managed to store. These are best used as a supplement to other alternative sources of power. Other practical rural options include windmills and even small-scale hydroelectric if you've got the right conditions to make this reasonable. Here is a neat 400 watt hydro setup that might work even on a small creek, and looks relatively cheap and easy. Larger systems are shown on other sites. These options may make sense even if you're figuring 1/1/2000 will be just another day. In some areas, you might be able to sell subsidized power to your local power company instead of just buying from them if you produce more than you need, often in a way that's good for the environment as compared to conventional power generation. (See the windmill link.) If you've got access to lots of wood, steam might be a good choice, but I have yet to find a reasonably priced steam engine / generator set for in the 1-2 KW range and below. If you find one, please let me know.
• If you've got real money, enough solar cells so you don't need the power grid at all is a wonderful thing. (Figure about $8/watt if you're a smart shopper for cells, how much the required battery backups and inverters depend on what you'll be running with it. If you're planning to run air conditioners and electric dryers, you're probably looking at $100K or so in cost.)
• If you're running alternative power, you need to consider a battery backup system which will be the main source of power, so you can use your generator / solar cell / hydro system only when it is needed to recharge the batteries, and size your generation system for an average load instead of a peak one. This also means less wear on the generator and reduced maintenance, as well as the obvious savings in fuel if your generator requires it.
• Jade Mountain seems to carry the full spectrum of alternative energy products, wind turbines, solar cells (lowest price I've ever seen!), conventional gas / propane / steam generators, hydroelectric, deep cycle batteries, inverters, etc. They also plan to carry a 27 pound 5 KW thermoelectric generator under development when it becomes available.
• If you run a generator to power your home / business, have an electrician install a double pole - double throw (DPDT) switch at the main breaker panel; if your generator is powering your house via backfeeding through "suicide plug" (male to male plug, one end in generator outlet and the other end in a home AC outlet) and the utilities restore power, your generator is likely to explode and at best, what's plugged into it is likely to be severely damaged. Also, if you put your generator indoors, run the exhaust outside, the same kind of metal stove pipe and insulation one uses with a stove might work. (exhaust from an internal combustion engine gets rather hot)
• Here's how to get on the y2k preparation mailing list. Warning: it's 4-5 40K messages PER DAY. (or 200 e-mails... but this should get you to the digest version:

  
  To: y2kprep-request@list-server.net
  Subject:
  
  subscribe
  set digest

  The bottom two lines should be the first 2 lines of your text message, they are commands for the list server program. Subject left blank on purpose, not that it matters.

• This is a survivalist oriented site that has, among many other useful things, actual test reviews of the exact kind of products you're going to want to have around when 2000 hits. I expect to be spending a lot of time here. You may find the politics a bit right-wing for you, but the survival info is the kind of solid stuff that may keep you alive in 2000.
• Here are the Usenet newsgroups that deal with alternate energy:
  alt.energy
  alt.energy.homepower
  alt.energy.renewable
  sci.energy
• Mother Earth News is a consistently good source of information on home-built energy, rural lifestyles, food storage, and in general, how-to information we might need to know if we lose a good chunk of our infrastructure for a while.
• Surge protection for computers and anything else that's sensitive (your home entertainment electronics?) is a good thing. If your computer equipment isn't already connected to a surge protected power strip or UPS (uninterruptable power supply) with built in power conditioning, you probably should close down your computer, go out and buy one, and return to this page after doing that. Year 2000 related computer problems isn't the only reason for power surges. Lightning strikes, and even metallized mylar kites shorting power lines to each other have resulted in thousands of volts coming out of your nominal 110 volt AC power line. If you're running off a generator, power surges are common. A surge-protected power strip once saved my own computer which was running off one and died in the process.

  Power surges are very probable on New Years Eve 1999, as various sections of the power grid are switched on and offline. If you're seriously paranoid, either unplug that evening or consider adding a cheap surge protector between your good one and the wall so if a power surge hits as a sacrifice to protect the more expensive one. By the way, the ones with MOV varistors wear out from normal use every couple or three years. After that, they retain their use as power strips, but don't protect anymore. Most low - medium cost surge-protected power strips use them. If you're buying, make sure yours has UL1449 compliance, and has three protected lines. (ground-hot, ground-neutral, hot-neutral) You might as well get surge protection for your incoming phone line(s) as well. Some power surge boxes have it built-in (the ones with 2 phone jacks), or you can get separate boxes.

  For business use, a UPS (uninterruptable power supply) is a good thing to have for post Y2K conditions, as I am expecting frequent blackouts and brownouts. This can not only damage your computer, but eat your last several hours of work. A small one can give you time to save all your work and shut down cleanly, a big one can keep you working. Here's information on one company's (allegedly) Y2K-ready UPS systems. This isn't the only place you can get them, just the first to come up in a quick Web search. Other manufactures make them, too. For larger power problems (like an office with quite a few machines) a backup generator system is the way to go to keep critical functions up. Note that with a generator, you need surge protection (or better, UPS systems) to provide safe power for computer systems.

• Make sure you've got at least one POTS ("plain old telephone service") phone that does NOT require electrical power at your home and business and make sure that it works.
• A cellular phone might be a good thing. The cell phone system occassionally stays up even when parts of the landline system goes down. CB radios are good to have, or better, ham radios if you've got the tech expertise. Learn more about ham radio from the ARRL Since the packet radio system is attached to the Internet, you might be able to go online that way, though if so, keep your traffic to what's necessary, as ham radio is traditionally used as backup emergency communications during disasters. The ARRL Handbook is also a very good reference on basic electronics. Family band short range (under a mile) walkie talkies are good for commuication within a family, especially if you're on a farm or ranch or working with a neighborhood patrol in the event that police services become unavailable.
• If you already know something about electronics hardware (advanced student / hobbyist / electronics professional) you might find the electronics hardware section of my home page useful. From there you can find links to places where you can get component sources besides Radio Shack willing to deal with individuals / low volume customers, free databooks (usually CDROM) , electronics related software, connector pinouts, other things a person trying to find out how to do practical things with electronics needs to know and can't get out of textbooks. This should be very helpful in your Y2K preparation once you've got food / heat / cooking out of the way.
• If you're a woman or doing the preparations for a household which has one or more women, don't forget one or more large boxes of tampons or sanitary napkins. If you're preparing for a long term scenario, I've seen ads for reusable washable sponges for this, but can't provide you with a link for the vendor at this time. Go here for more information and discussion of menstrual needs under Y2K conditions.
• Remember birth control supplies of whatever type of birth control you customarily use. Sex is another form of entertainment that doesn't require a working technological infrastructure. However, if access to medical services (including abortion) is reduced or eliminated, pregnancy might not be such a good idea. Also note that condoms, etc. might make good trade goods. Go here for more information and discussion of birth control under Y2K conditions.
• Did you remember toilet paper? (like a month or two supply). If your sewage system goes down, you may have a big problem regardless of what happens. If you've got a septic tank, get it pumped out in November 1999. There is safe human waste disposal information available on many of the preparation-oriented sites linked to this page. One product that is claimed to reduce human waste to a bacteriologically safe powder can be found When Nature Calls site. More useful information can be found at this location, not only on alternative methods of sanitary human waste disposal, but on several other topics.
• Get a manually operated can opener. If your power goes down, your electric can opener won't be opening your cans. Get a spare. Ever lose a can opener on a camping trip? While Swiss Army type knives and multifunction tools also have can openers, you probably don't want to have to use one on a daily basis, particularly if you're cooking for a family.
• Throw in a good, complete (try $50, not $10) first aid kit and get extra stocks of any prescription medicines you must have. (say, for as long a period as you're buying food to cover) Some require refrigeration. Figure out what you'll be doing about this. There are some low-power 12 volt refrigerators which might be workable with solar panels/batteries. If you believe in long term Y2K preparation, look into books like When There Is No Doctor, the Merck Manual, and other texts intended for self-help and medical professionals. (I'll try to add the book links later when time allows, but all you have to do to get to the Amazon Books search engine is click here. Use the BACK button on your browser to get back here. The Grainger business supply catalog has a range of first aid kits and supplies including ones intended for industrial shops and unbundled packages of various supplies.
• A tool kit with basic household essentials, hammer, screwdriver set, wrenches, pliers, drill, a plunger etc. might save you a lot of trouble. If the phones go down, you won't be calling a plumber or whatever.
• Get a fire extinguisher if you don't already have one, you'll be running more flame in the house than usual and your fire department may not be able to respond to your 911 call. Make sure your smoke detectors are working. If they're AC (yes, people have done this) replace with the battery powered type. If your propane or kerosene heater sets your place on fire, you want to be able to put it out immediately if possible.
• Make sure your car is functional and has a full tank of gas in it, and you might as well have a tent just in case your area becomes uninhabitable for whatever reason. And keep a survival kit in it. (blankets and/or sleeping bags, first aid kit, a good hunting knife, a set of tools, a couple of weeks worth of food, water), an extra 5 gallon gas can. There's always the chance you might have to leave too quickly to make major packing possible. Also, if power goes down, so does most gas stations. On current generations of electronically controlled gas pumps, there is no backup method of getting gasoline out of the tank. The removable crank handles some of you older folk may remember are things of the distant past. And don't forget to take a can opener.
• A suggestion from docdwarf@clark.net: Consider a moped as backup transportation. A vehicle good for 100 miles per gallon might be very useful under circumstances where gasoline is expensive and mostly unavailable.
• There is of course, the bicycle, zero fuel consumption. However, I recommend getting into good physical condition if you plan to use it as a primary mode of transportation post Y2K.
• If you own a gas station or a grocery store, consider a backup generator big enough to run at least minimum functions and enough fuel for a few days. (That's all you'll need, if you can't get more fuel, you also won't be able to restock.) Y2K season may be the biggest short-term profit opportunity you'll ever have.
• Do you smoke? If there are problems with transporting goods to market, there's a good chance that the government will dictate priorities for what gets shipped and that only "essential" goods will be shipped. Guess for yourself the chances that tobacco will be considered essential in the current political climate. A few cartons of cigarettes might be good to have around. While this could be considered a good time to stop smoking, stress situations are not the best ones to stop smoking in. If you do plan to stop, between now and spring 1999 would be a good time, while you can get things like Zyban and nicotine patches. If things get seriously bad around you, a few cartons of cigarettes might be a good thing to have even for non-smokers. . . as trade goods. If you wind up in need of a generator or some sort of help a few days after cigarettes become unavailable, you might be able to make a very good deal in exchange for a pack or carton of cigarettes. (or other 'luxury items' that aren't available due to transportation problems) By the way, it's extremely likely that there will be major transportation problems, check RAILINC. Hint: they're rehosting communications on Windows NT, they're moving their development facilities (which should slow down development)... This is something that worries me. The congressional Y2K committee is just now (8/19/1998) beginning to grill the rail industry on what this will do to Y2K readiness.
• In general, if there's anything consumable you use on a regular basis that's really important to you and you think that the government will consider it "non-essential", you probably should get a month or more extra supply of it just in case. Note: for users of illegal drugs, yes, they will probably be available. The bad news is that the prices will be amazing. Or you might be able to trade for scarce goods you thought to buy before things hit the fan, e.g. pot for cigarettes. . . or penicillin. This is intended as a quick lesson in "black market" economics, not an endorsement of illegal drug use.
• Inflation or even short-term hyper-inflation is one of the possible outcomes of Y2K season. There are also other circumstances where "hard money" might come in handy. (e.g. if things get worse than I expect.) If you'd like to keep some silver around in a spendable form, check out the price of bags of "junk silver" here. Not a recommendation, I saw the site mentioned on the Y2K newsgroup I read as having good prices. The advantage of silver coin is that at worst, you'll be able to spend it at face value, but it's unlikely the price will drop that far regardless of circumstances, silver is an important industrial metal. Here's a pointer that strongly suggests a Y2K inflationary scenario starting in late 1999 (and the first things to go up in price are likely to be survival-oriented supplies, buy early). Hint: The article mentions that a credible source is mentioning the possibility of bank runs and that the Treasury is printing extra money. Silver, after Y2K supplies have been purchased might be a good thing to have. Don't worry about destabilizing the economy even if you clean out your bank account to buy Y2K supplies. If you buy things, including silver and gold from businesses, all that happens is that the money goes from your bank account into your vendors, net effect is zero. If you do this, you won't need that much paper money. (PAPER money in mattresses does destabilise the banks, but this isn't the place for a discussion of fractional reserve banking, this page is quite long enough.)
• If you want to encourage awareness in your friends and neighbors of Y2K issues, for instance, so they'll be preparing themselves instead of showing up on your doorstep hungry a few days after Y2K season starts, check this out:
  "For $20 (that's 20 cents apiece, folks) plus about $11 shipping, you can get 100 of the Y2kNews CPR issue (in other words, 30 cents for each person you want to make aware, and NO WORK on your part except ordering). CPR stands for Critical Preparation Resource. This issue is being used around the country for edification by the Year 2000 National Education Taskforce. They have huge numbers of these. There is not a single person that I have given one to that hasn't come back for more information. There are articles by Yourdon, O'Riley (Cassandra), Yardeni, Keyes, Meagher, Stevens (author, "Making the Best of the Basics"), Lord, Bell, Bennett, North, etc., and my very favorite is one on specific steps to preparedness [finding potable water, the difference between stockpiling food (legal) and hoarding food (illegal), etc]. Call 1-8 88-925-9925 for details on bundles (minimum 100); they are quick shipping. I guess I felt that, for about $30, it would be worth it if only one person's life was changed toward preparation---might be the best $30 I spend in ALL this y2k stuff."

  Something to send to friends, relatives, etc. or even to attach anonymously to neighbors' mailboxes / front doors.

• I'll add at least one gun and preferably more, ammo (1,000 rounds per gun is a good start) and a few hours of rifle range time and firearm safety instruction to this. Police may be one of the other emergency services which might be temporarily unavailable, and civil disorder is not only possible, I expect it in some areas. (Mainly urban core, but panic is something that works perfectly well regardless of race, religion, creed, or income level.) For more specific recommendations, start here. Note that pepper spray and/or Mace (CN gas) or best, the combination of pepper spray pressurized by Mace in jurisdictions that allow it is a good thing to carry outside your home even now. If you carry it, don't hesitate too long about using it. Based on experience. People generally live through getting sprayed. People often don't live through what criminals have in mind.

  If you plan to buy firearms for self-defense for Y2K, BUY GUNS RIGHT NOW!!!. New gun control legislation was passed in a couple of states within a few days of the Littleton, CO massacre by people who are perfectly aware that those laws would not have saved any lives in Colorado and won't save any children's lives in the future. There has been a movement in the US to ban private possession of firearms for years. The anti-gun hysteria which is being deliberately fomented by politicians and mass media will result in more anti-gun legislation which will make it harder for you, the law-abiding citizen to purchase the most powerful tool for self-defense available in current technology. If 911 is totally down in your area and you become the target of a home invasion robbery, not having a gun in the house probably means no recourse against the intruder, particularly if you are a single woman with kids. Since my opinions with respect to Littleton have other than that they will make guns harder to buy (already happened) are not relevant to a Y2K page, you can find them on my Gun Control, Censorship, and Littleton page.

• Here is the closest thing I've found to an online unarmed self-defense course. Looks good, at least at first glance. Good things to know right now, even without a disaster in the future. Though since there is time, taking martial arts classes is also a good way to prepare for Y2K season. The physical and mental conditioning is a good thing to have in any emergency situation. (The above link no longer works, it's a placeholder to remind me to find a replacement link. If you know of one, please catch me in e-mail - NOW.)
• Try hard not to need medical services on 12/31/1999 - 1/1/2000. Leaving out the obvious problems, such as what will probably be the fallout from the heaviest wave of partying in the last thousand years, there are Y2K problems. There are many embedded computers in hospitals, often in objects one wouldn't think of as computers. A lot of those aren't going to be working on New Year's Day 2000. If you've got elective surgery, schedule well before or well after. If the surgery is necessary, get it well before the 12/1999. "Half of the nation's 6,000 hospitals will not be Y2K compliant" when the new year rolls in, particularly those in rural areas, estimates U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett." (chairman of the Senate Year 2000 Committee)
• While airplanes probably won't be flying 12/31/1999, if they are allowed to fly, I don't recommend being in a commercial plane. Private plane? It might be intelligent to test the internal timekeeping system for Y2K compliance and to fly to/from rural areas, if troubles show up with the ATC systems. . . and keep your eyes open for planes with malfunctioning guidance systems. Here is an IEEE Spectrum article on expected Y2K ATC problems
• This site is by a group that's figuring out low cost food storage, electric power, etc. alternatives and selling kits, plans, things like food-grade buckets, water storage, oxygen absorbers for long term storage, etc. It also has good basic information on survival in the kinds of situations many people may be facing during the year 2000. Check this out.
• If you have Y2K topics you'd like to discuss CONFIDENTIALLY, be warned that your e-mail is NOT private, that your system administrators or crimimal, government, or corporate hackers can read it at any time, you can get the PGP privacy protection program freeware for DOS,linux,Win 95,Win NT,Mac Sys 7.5+ at these sites:
  PGP freeware for US Citizens ONLY
  PGP freeware for anyone OUTSIDE the US

  You can also get a phone security program will make your phone calls or Internet voice conferences (Net phone) at the freeware sites as well.

  Get the commercial version (about $100, worth it) at the PGP Inc. site. If you're planning to use it for business applications, this is the one you should get. It will work with the freeware versions.

  You can get my current PGP key here. If and only if you have my old PGP key, get the key revocation certificate for that key here.

• This is intended as an overview, not a shopping list. For a much more detailed list, go to INDIVIDUAL PREPARATION FOR Y2K at The Cassandra Project site. This foresees the kind of scenario I do. Good common sense stuff, though I disagree with them with respect to guns, they don't recommend them, I say get one (see above) For "end of the world" ... sorry, I'm still researching.
• Here's another list intended for a worse scenario than this site is intended to deal with. I think it's interesting reading, it should give you some helpful preparation ideas.
• Mother Earth News is one of the most important resources on self-reliance, alternative energy resources, information on how things were done before modern technology. While there are a few things of interest on the site, there doesn't seem to be the article database in place needed to make the best use of a magazine site. Buy a copy off a newsstand and see what you think.
• "To Build A Fire": Your comfort and perhaps your life may depend on being able to build a fire. Get plenty of strike-anywhere kitchen matches. A Zippo lighter is a good investment, they are reliable. If you get one, get plenty of flints and a few large cans of lighter fluid. And get a spare, while the manufacturer gives it a lifetime guarantee, it takes time you may not have to get it to the factory and back. There's also always a chance you might lose it. Note that if you have any Bic type lighters, the flints in them can be recycled into Zippo type lighters, the diameter is the same, but Bic flints are longer, they're brittle and can be trimmed to avoid damage to the lighter spring with the cutting edge of a small pair of pliers. If fluid is gone or you have a Bic type lighter, it may be possible to use one with the cover removed as an ignitor for dry tinder. The Bic lighter spring might be adaptable to the Zippo, possibly the wheel as well, though you'll need a pop-riveter to mount it properly. Bic lighters would make good trade goods in a severe Y2K situation. Magnifying glasses work well when the sun is out, though whether they will work for you in the winter depends on where you are and local weather conditions and fuel availability. The "To Build a Fire" quote is from a short story by Jack London about a person who hadn't prepared adequately whose life depended on building a fire. I recommend the story.
• Here's a Emergency prep information site
• If it has to do with Y2K preparation and if you can't find it anywhere else, check Ellen's Y2K links. There is a certain amount of overlap between her links and mine, her page is more personal preparation oriented than mine is.
• Don't advertise your preparations, however, you might want to discuss them with someone you knwo to be preparing, combining orders for quantity discounts might save you some money. Somebody who finally gets the word as the shit hits the fan and knows that you've prepared might decide that the easiest way to get food and creature comforts might be to take yours, especially if emergency services or the phone goes down in your area.
• Finally, when you buy supplies for preparation, keep your receipts. If things go right and you don't need preparation supplies, you might be able to donate them to a non-profit organization feeding the hungry and take the tax deduction. I'd wait until at least 7/2000 before deciding nothing happened. If "minor" 2000 effects tank the economy, you may be very glad to cook yo`ur Y2K food supplies, not over a camp stove, but on your regular cooking facilities as you're waiting for unemployment benefits to kick in.