Reptilian Associates Year 2000 Information

For a look at grocery stores and Y2k by a store manager of a major chain, go to grocery stores and y2k. Here's a quote from the article:"In any typical week, we're out of stock on somewhere around 2% of the SKUs. Some grocery stores are higher, few are lower. By 12/1/1999, I would expect that figure to rise to 40%. By the end of the month, I would not be surprised to see out-of-stocks at 75%, and whatever remains will be the slower-moving items. Keep in mind, too, that that could mean three to four times my typical sales for that week, which is already the best or second best of the year. That means extremely crowded aisles and extremely long lines. Beware."

Here are another couple of infrastructure posts, food distributor and Gas distribution at major-chain owned gas station. The good news about gas distribution is that independent gas stations are generally older technology, i.e., they should be able to sell gasoline, on a cash basis at least if power stays on.

This section is written on the assumption that 1/1/2000 will be a difficult experience that can be prepared for affordably, not the end of the world or at least of technological civilization. It assumes that major services which are interrupted around you will be either be restored within a few days or a week or two or that your area will be receiving disaster relief from areas less affected within a few weeks at worst.

Power may be down, your phone may be down, the food chain might go down, emergency services might go down temporarily. Get some of your money out of the bank well in advance, or at the very least get hard copy records (account statements) close to the end of Dec. 1999. Pay bills and get written receipts.

By the way, according to FEMA, anyone requiring any type of life support that uses electricity should register with your local Emergency Management office -- regardless of possible circumstances, presumably to make your power the first priority for restoration in case of a power outage. If it were my life, I'd arrange for a solar panel and/or generator and/or large battery pack and/or a hospital stay for New Year's Eve 2000. Let's hope you won't need any of what I recommend here, but while we know when 1/1/2000 is coming, there is a disaster in your future no matter where you live, so if you get these items and the power stays on, don't be too disappointed. You'll find a use for this stuff sooner or later. At worst, you can eat it, or donate it to your local food bank. (and take a tax writeoff)

I think the most likely serious problem for most people is a few days of power outage, possibly taking down the water supply, and phones followed by months of occasional brownouts and blackouts.The hardest hit areas are likely to be totally off the grid for weeks or even a couple of months or so. Think in terms of preparing for a 1-2 month camping trip in an area where power probably won't be available. If you've got an RV, you've probably got everything or just about everything I'm suggesting except food and extra water.

However, if the power goes down New Year's Eve 1999, don't panic. There's a good chance that it was turned off on purpose and will be back up within a few minutes or hours. There are going to be a lot of very nervous people in utility power management facilities who will be pulling plugs at the first sign of cascade or other major failures. Looks at this point that some major utility failures are certain. Believe it or not, some utility company information tech people are still trying to convince management that Y2K compliance work needs to start. In most places in the US, that work is already well under way. One reason I assume power failure is most likely is that one Y2K project manager at a major Southeastern US provider said that every electric power plant tested crashed when fed a 1/1/2000 "detonation test" date. He went on to say that the problems found either have been fixed or will be shortly. I believe him, but note that he only speaks for one company. I also believe him when he says that preparation for temporary Y2K related power outages is a good idea no matter where you are. Minor good news is that I saw a report from an association of natural gas distributors that said that their Y2K remediation process is far less complex than the electric process and that they expect to be Y2K ready. The bad news, of course is that there's no way to know if they are telling the truth until some time on 1/1/2000 and the ones that fail may be yours.

Some of the following is based on experience, the stuff I either had access to or wished I had access to when I got to experience a major earthquake a few years ago. By the way, I'd get these items months in advance if possible, there's a good chance that the public panic and panic buying will hit during December 1999. If you decide to get really serious and buy the nitrogen packed foods for long-term storage, I'd order... now would be a good time. Some of the outfits selling this kind of food are already overbooked and are quoting several weeks (e.g. Walden Foods) to fufill orders. The reason is simple. The people who already do business with these organizations immediately decided to stock up on food as soon as they heard Y2K was likely to be a problem. (7/3/1999)

Also, whatever you get, get spare parts whenever you can. Even if society is pretty much fully operational a month or so after the crash, whatever organization supplies the spare part you need may not be. A word to the wise should be sufficient. (spark plugs, fan belts, fuses, radiator hoses, a tire or two, bulbs, batteries... whatever is most likely to fail on whatever you depend on)

Anyone who says that there is not enough food available to make Y2K preparation possible for every household in the US hasn't checked the facts. We have 51 million metric tons of wheat and 204 million metric tons of maize stored in the USA. We also have quite a few megatons stored of just about everything else we grow in the US. Click here for details. That's about 1 ton for every man, woman, and child in America. Can you eat a ton of food in a couple of months? The problem with food isn't a lack of it, it's that transportation and computer problems mag make it possible for the food to get from storage facilities to your home. If it's at your place already, that ceases to be a problem.

• Get at least one or two months non-perishable food in just in case. Three or more is better. I recommend getting things your family will eat regardless of whether Y2K is a problem or not. Remember that you don't have to buy things labeled "camp food" or "survival food", things like canned foods, dehydrated foods like macaroni and cheese, and many other non-perishable foods are available at any grocery store. Smart shopping (buy cases of tuna and macaroni and cheese on sale, 20 lb and larger bags of rice, beans, etc.) might keep your outlay under $200 for a family of 4 for a month. Unless you try buying at the last minute. If your food supply is largely dehydrated, remember that it takes water to reconstitute them, plan for that when you store water. NOW is a good time to start. Get some cheap multivitamins (the one a day type RDA packages, at least) to make up for any deficiencies in your meal planning.

  Unless you're reading this in late 1999, you don't have to do all your preparation immediately. A painless way to start doing this is to buy a few extra cans or packages of non-perishable food every time you go shopping, put them in a box labeled "emergency supplies", and keep doing this. Sooner or later, you'll want to take stock of what you've got against what you'll need for a full (x) months of food. Other information here or linked to this page will help you figure out what you need.

  It is my understanding that British supermarket chains will be putting out ad campaigns discouraging this kind of preparation, due to the fact that people buying more than usual will cause problems in their supply chain. I would suspect that the same will happen in the USA. I can say that as soon as you see this kind of ad campaign, don't wait another minute, it means you've already waited too long. Of course, this might put you in the middle of a panicked supermarket crowd, on a basis that "Don't worry, there is no cause for alarm" translates to "PANIC TIME!!!". Sorry, best I can do at this point, when I have more solid ideas, I'll post them. Try to make sure the shelf life of whatever you buy will take you at least through 2/2000. The other reason why having a food supply may be helpful even if you're in an area where the lights don't even flicker on 12/31/1999 is that high unemployment is quite likely for a while in 2000, and having a few months of food in place will reduce financial stress on you quite a bit. For more information on food, go here. The other reasons to check into food are probable Y2K-caused inflation and the high probability of very high unemployment, even if your company is Y2K ready, it's suppliers, vendors, transportation, or communications may not be. You'll want to be able to spend money on things other than food if you're without a job for a while.

• Water stored in food grade 55 gallon drums, with a food grade drum type hand pump is one answer. Remember that a 55 gallon drum weighs 440 pounds (200 kg) when full, so this is a solution that probably isn't practical for an apartment, the floor under it might collapse. BTW, a gallon of water a day per person is recommended. (for drinking) Portable tanks, some of which can be collapsed for storage are available at Glitchproof and WaterTanks. Another option is using 5 gallon food-grade plastic buckets. I can't recommend 1 gallon plastic jugs or 5 gallon camp type disposable water containers except as a last resort, I don't see them as stacking well. Storing more than a month or two of water for 2 people is probably not practical in an upper floor apartment, and even that might be pushing your luck. (of course, if you've got ground level storage. . .) Remember to store more ` than you think you need if you possibly can, you might want to wash dishes or yourself. You might want to flush toilets once in a while... and/or use your non-potable water supply, e.g. a water bed, swimming pool, etc.) to flush. Remember if you don't have water pressure, simply pouring a gallon or two of water into the toilet bowl will flush it. Of course, with an extended blackout (days), areas whose sewage is handled by pumps instead of straight gravity feed may wind up with sewage backing up. These areas will have a certain air about them. The other problem with this is that you are going to want to have enough water to be able to both drink and flush. So store more than you think you'll need. Also remember that there are probably non-potable water sources that don't rely on electricity somewhere around where you live. (streams, creeks, rivers, lakes, etc.) So get water purification tablets (or use bleach containing sodium hypochlorite ONLY, no fabric softeners or whiteners) and filters from your local camping supply place and remember that you don't have to purify water you'll be using to flush with. If you live in a detached house, 55 gallon drums at ground level, or even water tanks ranging from a few hundred gallons to thousands might be practical. You know your space. It was suggested to me that plastic water tanks designed for the farm might be an economical alternative to much of what's recommended.
• a camp stove (preferably dual fuel - kerosene / propane) and a few gallons of fuel. Heating oil full size cooking stoves are available for areas where heating oil is common, the Grainger business supply catalog sells them. This might even be a cost-effective alternative for non-Y2K situations, depends on relative energy costs where you live.
• Coleman type lanterns (GET EXTRA MANTLES, preferably heavy-duty) as well as flashlights and lots of extra batteries. Hurricane lanterns / oil lamps are also a good source of heat, get a gallon or two of oil to go with them. Also remember the battery lanterns (I recommend the fluorescent types, more efficient use of battery power) sold by various vendors. The advantages of this type are that you can use various kinds of solar cell packages (e.g. solar C-D-etc. battery chargers) to keep them going. Get extra bulbs / tubes as well. If you can find good plans within your capabilities (can you solder?) for converting flashlights and battery powered lanterns to LEDs (white is best, but you should find high-efficiency yellow and red quite useful) take the time, LEDs give far more light for the same amount of battery power than incandescent bulbs and even fluorescent lanterns do, and they also last far longer. I'll link to plans if I find one I like or I'll write a plan when I've finally gotten around to converting one myself.
• Add a catalytic heater to this. Rechargeable battery poweredcarbon monoxide and fire detectors are a very good thing to go with this. I'm assuming you ordinarily use electric or natural gas heat. If you use fuel oil, just top off the tank and make sure that at least some portion of your house heat isn't dependent on local electric power. (e.g. run it with a generator, there may be other solutions involving lead-acid batteries and alternative 12 volt fan arrangements, if this works, could someone who's tried it catch me in e-mail?) You are not only going to feel cold, but stupid if your fuel oil tank is full and you can't run your heater without electric power. Another alternative is a portabie oil heater that appears to require NO AC power, check the Grainger business supply catalog. Natural gas is not a good choice for a Y2K heat source, the gas supply may fail. Moreover, if you're using a forced air gas central heater, you'll need AC power or alternative arrangements. A gravity type gas heater might be a good candidate for a propane conversion, the difference between a natural gas and propane heater is fairly minor. (different jet size, but this is best done with expert advice or help) Remember, in the Northern Hemisphere, 12/31/1999 is the middle of winter. Don't figure on your fireplace as a good source of heat unless you've already done the wood stove conversion. (the heavy iron / glass door in front of the flame setups) With a conventional fireplace, 80-90% of the heat produced goes straight up the chimney. If you want to use a fireplace for heat, spend a few hundred dollars and convert it to a wood stove early in 1999 at the latest. Making sure your place stays warm may be the most important part of keeping the first part of 2000 comfortable. Warning, if you're planning to buy a pellet stove for Y2K, you'll need some sort of non-utility electric power to make it work. It may be possible to retrofit one for 12 volt power (see fuel oil above) but I can't guarantee it, if you already have one, try it and let me know. If you're rural and don't have a wood stove, portable wood stoves are available for cooking, at this point I don't know who's got them for sale who can deliver in a reasonable length of time. Get a chimney cleaning cleaning service to clean out your chimney some time in November 1999 or a little before.
• If you're using propane, get the adaptor kit that'll allow you to use both small bottles and 5 or larger gallon propane bottles, preferably the one with multiple taps so you can run a heater and/or stove and/or lantern at the same time. For liquid fuel, make sure you've got a few gallons of kerosene. Preferably quite a few. Safe storage means outside (e.g. apartment balcony) or well ventilated shed, don't store indoors unless there's no other choice. (there might not be)
• For gasoline to propane conversion kits, click here.
• One thing which will cut your need for heating energy quite a bit. The obvious: dress warmly during the day, and at night, a good sleeping bag can make very cold indoor temperaturs very comfortable, especially since wind isn't generally a problem indoors.
• Battery powered radios and perhaps a 12 volt TV. Believe it or not, you're still going to want to be entertained, and more importantly, you're going to want to hear any announcement about the situation (e.g. there's a major fire coming your way and it's time to evacuate) the authorities want to tell you. If you want world news, consider getting a short wave receiver. Expect to hear bad news from outside the US. Also, lay in a stock of those good books you always intended to read and never got around to. If it takes a few days to get power back on, you aren't going to be doing business in the meantime. For TV, you're better off with an LCD type with respect to battery consumption, though the screens are really small. The battery power types with a picture tube eat batteries really fast, you want a solar panel or other alternative energy system to keep one running. The cheapest low-power electric solution is rechargable batteries and a solar cell battery charger. You can get these and other things you may find useful for Y2K and other uses at CC Crane.
• If you're running 12 volt battery power stuff, one possibility is to get an extra auto battery, put it in a well ventilated place where sparks and flames are unlikely and use it to power your battery powered stuff. One fully charged 12 volt battery is much more cost-effective than hundreds of C and D cells, and you can use your car to recharge it. However, if you're planning much more than running a battery TV (Battery powered TVs of reasonable size eat batteries quickly!) look into gel cells which will last far longer in this kind of service. With a 12 volt battery, you can get an inverter to run 110 v AC items. If you buy an extra battery for that specific purpose, get deep-cycle batteries. (Check with your local golf cart or other electric vehicle or RV dealer or for prices.) They were made for this kind of service (drain until power almost gone and recharge), ordinary auto batteries will die quickly if used that way. However, you're best off drawing a portion of the battery charge even from the deep cycle units before recharge.
• Solar cells can be an excellent way to keep things like 12 volt and smaller batteries charged. There are any number of places to get panels designed to charge 12 volt batteries. (RV catalogs, electronics parts catalogs (you can find good prices on solar in the "surplus" catalogs IF you know what you're buying.) are the first things that occur to me.) Figure $10-20 a watt or so, remember that you probably aren't going to need a whole lot of watts for this class of service.
• In a rural area, a backup generator may make sense, especially if you've got a farm. If you buy early, you might get a good deal on a used unit in time to do whatever repair / maintenance make sure it's 100% functional on 12/31/1998. What's wrong with a generator is that it rather advertises that you've got electrical power and are probably otherwise in better shape than most people are during the emergency in progress. . . those things are incredibly noisy. Worse, you have to be able to get fuel for them as soon as you're out of whatever you've managed to store. These are best used as a supplement to other alternative sources of power. Other practical rural options include windmills and even small-scale hydroelectric if you've got the right conditions to make this reasonable. Here is a neat 400 watt hydro setup that might work even on a small creek, and looks relatively cheap and easy. Larger systems are shown on other sites. These options may make sense even if you're figuring 1/1/2000 will be just another day. In some areas, you might be able to sell subsidized power to your local power company instead of just buying from them if you produce more than you need, often in a way that's good for the environment as compared to conventional power generation. (See the windmill link.) If you've got access to lots of wood, steam might be a good choice, but I have yet to find a reasonably priced steam engine / generator set for in the 1-2 KW range and below. If you find one, please let me know.
• If you've got real money, enough solar cells so you don't need the power grid at all is a wonderful thing. (Figure about $8/watt if you're a smart shopper for cells, how much the required battery backups and inverters depend on what you'll be running with it. If you're planning to run air conditioners and electric dryers, you're probably looking at $100K or so in cost.)
• If you're running alternative power, you need to consider a battery backup system which will be the main source of power, so you can use your generator / solar cell / hydro system only when it is needed to recharge the batteries, and size your generation system for an average load instead of a peak one. This also means less wear on the generator and reduced maintenance, as well as the obvious savings in fuel if your generator requires it.
• Jade Mountain seems to carry the full spectrum of alternative energy products, wind turbines, solar cells (lowest price I've ever seen!), conventional gas / propane / steam generators, hydroelectric, deep cycle batteries, inverters, etc. They also plan to carry a 27 pound 5 KW thermoelectric generator under development when it becomes available.
• If you run a generator to power your home / business, have an electrician install a double pole - double throw (DPDT) switch at the main breaker panel; if your generator is powering your house via backfeeding through "suicide plug" (male to male plug, one end in generator outlet and the other end in a home AC outlet) and the utilities restore power, your generator is likely to explode and at best, what's plugged into it is likely to be severely damaged. Also, if you put your generator indoors, run the exhaust outside, the same kind of metal stove pipe and insulation one uses with a stove might work. (exhaust from an internal combustion engine gets rather hot)
• Here's how to get on the y2k preparation mailing list. Warning: it's 4-5 40K messages PER DAY. (or 200 e-mails... but this should get you to the digest version:

  
  To: y2kprep-request@list-server.net
  Subject:
  
  subscribe
  set digest

  The bottom two lines should be the first 2 lines of your text message, they are commands for the list server program. Subject left blank on purpose, not that it matters.

• This is a survivalist oriented site that has, among many other useful things, actual test reviews of the exact kind of products you're going to want to have around when 2000 hits. I expect to be spending a lot of time here. You may find the politics a bit right-wing for you, but the survival info is the kind of solid stuff that may keep you alive in 2000.
• Here are the Usenet newsgroups that deal with alternate energy:
  alt.energy
  alt.energy.homepower
  alt.energy.renewable
  sci.energy
• Mother Earth News is a consistently good source of information on home-built energy, rural lifestyles, food storage, and in general, how-to information we might need to know if we lose a good chunk of our infrastructure for a while.
• Surge protection for computers and anything else that's sensitive (your home entertainment electronics?) is a good thing. If your computer equipment isn't already connected to a surge protected power strip or UPS (uninterruptable power supply) with built in power conditioning, you probably should close down your computer, go out and buy one, and return to this page after doing that. Year 2000 related computer problems isn't the only reason for power surges. Lightning strikes, and even metallized mylar kites shorting power lines to each other have resulted in thousands of volts coming out of your nominal 110 volt AC power line. If you're running off a generator, power surges are common. A surge-protected power strip once saved my own computer which was running off one and died in the process.

  Power surges are very probable on New Years Eve 1999, as various sections of the power grid are switched on and offline. If you're seriously paranoid, either unplug that evening or consider adding a cheap surge protector between your good one and the wall so if a power surge hits as a sacrifice to protect the more expensive one. By the way, the ones with MOV varistors wear out from normal use every couple or three years. After that, they retain their use as power strips, but don't protect anymore. Most low - medium cost surge-protected power strips use them. If you're buying, make sure yours has UL1449 compliance, and has three protected lines. (ground-hot, ground-neutral, hot-neutral) You might as well get surge protection for your incoming phone line(s) as well. Some power surge boxes have it built-in (the ones with 2 phone jacks), or you can get separate boxes.

  For business use, a UPS (uninterruptable power supply) is a good thing to have for post Y2K conditions, as I am expecting frequent blackouts and brownouts. This can not only damage your computer, but eat your last several hours of work. A small one can give you time to save all your work and shut down cleanly, a big one can keep you working. Here's information on one company's (allegedly) Y2K-ready UPS systems. This isn't the only place you can get them, just the first to come up in a quick Web search. Other manufactures make them, too. For larger power problems (like an office with quite a few machines) a backup generator system is the way to go to keep critical functions up. Note that with a generator, you need surge protection (or better, UPS systems) to provide safe power for computer systems.

• Make sure you've got at least one POTS ("plain old telephone service") phone that does NOT require electrical power at your home and business and make sure that it works.
• A cellular phone might be a good thing. The cell phone system occassionally stays up even when parts of the landline system goes down. CB radios are good to have, or better, ham radios if you've got the tech expertise. Learn more about ham radio from the ARRL Since the packet radio system is attached to the Internet, you might be able to go online that way, though if so, keep your traffic to what's necessary, as ham radio is traditionally used as backup emergency communications during disasters. The ARRL Handbook is also a very good reference on basic electronics. Family band short range (under a mile) walkie talkies are good for commuication within a family, especially if you're on a farm or ranch or working with a neighborhood patrol in the event that police services become unavailable.
• If you already know something about electronics hardware (advanced student / hobbyist / electronics professional) you might find the electronics hardware section of my home page useful. From there you can find links to places where you can get component sources besides Radio Shack willing to deal with individuals / low volume customers, free databooks (usually CDROM) , electronics related software, connector pinouts, other things a person trying to find out how to do practical things with electronics needs to know and can't get out of textbooks. This should be very helpful in your Y2K preparation once you've got food / heat / cooking out of the way.
• If you're a woman or doing the preparations for a household which has one or more women, don't forget one or more large boxes of tampons or sanitary napkins. If you're preparing for a long term scenario, I've seen ads for reusable washable sponges for this, but can't provide you with a link for the vendor at this time. Go here for more information and discussion of menstrual needs under Y2K conditions.
• Remember birth control supplies of whatever type of birth control you customarily use. Sex is another form of entertainment that doesn't require a working technological infrastructure. However, if access to medical services (including abortion) is reduced or eliminated, pregnancy might not be such a good idea. Also note that condoms, etc. might make good trade goods. Go here for more information and discussion of birth control under Y2K conditions.
• Did you remember toilet paper? (like a month or two supply). If your sewage system goes down, you may have a big problem regardless of what happens. If you've got a septic tank, get it pumped out in November 1999. There is safe human waste disposal information available on many of the preparation-oriented sites linked to this page. One product that is claimed to reduce human waste to a bacteriologically safe powder can be found When Nature Calls site. More useful information can be found at this location, not only on alternative methods of sanitary human waste disposal, but on several other topics.
• Get a manually operated can opener. If your power goes down, your electric can opener won't be opening your cans. Get a spare. Ever lose a can opener on a camping trip? While Swiss Army type knives and multifunction tools also have can openers, you probably don't want to have to use one on a daily basis, particularly if you're cooking for a family.
• Throw in a good, complete (try $50, not $10) first aid kit and get extra stocks of any prescription medicines you must have. (say, for as long a period as you're buying food to cover) Some require refrigeration. Figure out what you'll be doing about this. There are some low-power 12 volt refrigerators which might be workable with solar panels/batteries. If you believe in long term Y2K preparation, look into books like When There Is No Doctor, the Merck Manual, and other texts intended for self-help and medical professionals. (I'll try to add the book links later when time allows, but all you have to do to get to the Amazon Books search engine is click here. Use the BACK button on your browser to get back here. The Grainger business supply catalog has a range of first aid kits and supplies including ones intended for industrial shops and unbundled packages of various supplies.
• A tool kit with basic household essentials, hammer, screwdriver set, wrenches, pliers, drill, a plunger etc. might save you a lot of trouble. If the phones go down, you won't be calling a plumber or whatever.
• Get a fire extinguisher if you don't already have one, you'll be running more flame in the house than usual and your fire department may not be able to respond to your 911 call. Make sure your smoke detectors are working. If they're AC (yes, people have done this) replace with the battery powered type. If your propane or kerosene heater sets your place on fire, you want to be able to put it out immediately if possible.
• Make sure your car is functional and has a full tank of gas in it, and you might as well have a tent just in case your area becomes uninhabitable for whatever reason. And keep a survival kit in it. (blankets and/or sleeping bags, first aid kit, a good hunting knife, a set of tools, a couple of weeks worth of food, water), an extra 5 gallon gas can. There's always the chance you might have to leave too quickly to make major packing possible. Also, if power goes down, so does most gas stations. On current generations of electronically controlled gas pumps, there is no backup method of getting gasoline out of the tank. The removable crank handles some of you older folk may remember are things of the distant past. And don't forget to take a can opener.
• A suggestion from docdwarf@clark.net: Consider a moped as backup transportation. A vehicle good for 100 miles per gallon might be very useful under circumstances where gasoline is expensive and mostly unavailable.
• There is of course, the bicycle, zero fuel consumption. However, I recommend getting into good physical condition if you plan to use it as a primary mode of transportation post Y2K.
• If you own a gas station or a grocery store, consider a backup generator big enough to run at least minimum functions and enough fuel for a few days. (That's all you'll need, if you can't get more fuel, you also won't be able to restock.) Y2K season may be the biggest short-term profit opportunity you'll ever have.
• Do you smoke? If there are problems with transporting goods to market, there's a good chance that the government will dictate priorities for what gets shipped and that only "essential" goods will be shipped. Guess for yourself the chances that tobacco will be considered essential in the current political climate. A few cartons of cigarettes might be good to have around. While this could be considered a good time to stop smoking, stress situations are not the best ones to stop smoking in. If you do plan to stop, between now and spring 1999 would be a good time, while you can get things like Zyban and nicotine patches. If things get seriously bad around you, a few cartons of cigarettes might be a good thing to have even for non-smokers. . . as trade goods. If you wind up in need of a generator or some sort of help a few days after cigarettes become unavailable, you might be able to make a very good deal in exchange for a pack or carton of cigarettes. (or other 'luxury items' that aren't available due to transportation problems) By the way, it's extremely likely that there will be major transportation problems, check RAILINC. Hint: they're rehosting communications on Windows NT, they're moving their development facilities (which should slow down development)... This is something that worries me. The congressional Y2K committee is just now (8/19/1998) beginning to grill the rail industry on what this will do to Y2K readiness.
• In general, if there's anything consumable you use on a regular basis that's really important to you and you think that the government will consider it "non-essential", you probably should get a month or more extra supply of it just in case. Note: for users of illegal drugs, yes, they will probably be available. The bad news is that the prices will be amazing. Or you might be able to trade for scarce goods you thought to buy before things hit the fan, e.g. pot for cigarettes. . . or penicillin. This is intended as a quick lesson in "black market" economics, not an endorsement of illegal drug use.
• Inflation or even short-term hyper-inflation is one of the possible outcomes of Y2K season. There are also other circumstances where "hard money" might come in handy. (e.g. if things get worse than I expect.) If you'd like to keep some silver around in a spendable form, check out the price of bags of "junk silver" here. Not a recommendation, I saw the site mentioned on the Y2K newsgroup I read as having good prices. The advantage of silver coin is that at worst, you'll be able to spend it at face value, but it's unlikely the price will drop that far regardless of circumstances, silver is an important industrial metal. Here's a pointer that strongly suggests a Y2K inflationary scenario starting in late 1999 (and the first things to go up in price are likely to be survival-oriented supplies, buy early). Hint: The article mentions that a credible source is mentioning the possibility of bank runs and that the Treasury is printing extra money. Silver, after Y2K supplies have been purchased might be a good thing to have. Don't worry about destabilizing the economy even if you clean out your bank account to buy Y2K supplies. If you buy things, including silver and gold from businesses, all that happens is that the money goes from your bank account into your vendors, net effect is zero. If you do this, you won't need that much paper money. (PAPER money in mattresses does destabilise the banks, but this isn't the place for a discussion of fractional reserve banking, this page is quite long enough.)
• If you want to encourage awareness in your friends and neighbors of Y2K issues, for instance, so they'll be preparing themselves instead of showing up on your doorstep hungry a few days after Y2K season starts, check this out:
  "For $20 (that's 20 cents apiece, folks) plus about $11 shipping, you can get 100 of the Y2kNews CPR issue (in other words, 30 cents for each person you want to make aware, and NO WORK on your part except ordering). CPR stands for Critical Preparation Resource. This issue is being used around the country for edification by the Year 2000 National Education Taskforce. They have huge numbers of these. There is not a single person that I have given one to that hasn't come back for more information. There are articles by Yourdon, O'Riley (Cassandra), Yardeni, Keyes, Meagher, Stevens (author, "Making the Best of the Basics"), Lord, Bell, Bennett, North, etc., and my very favorite is one on specific steps to preparedness [finding potable water, the difference between stockpiling food (legal) and hoarding food (illegal), etc]. Call 1-8 88-925-9925 for details on bundles (minimum 100); they are quick shipping. I guess I felt that, for about $30, it would be worth it if only one person's life was changed toward preparation---might be the best $30 I spend in ALL this y2k stuff."

  Something to send to friends, relatives, etc. or even to attach anonymously to neighbors' mailboxes / front doors.

• I'll add at least one gun and preferably more, ammo (1,000 rounds per gun is a good start) and a few hours of rifle range time and firearm safety instruction to this. Police may be one of the other emergency services which might be temporarily unavailable, and civil disorder is not only possible, I expect it in some areas. (Mainly urban core, but panic is something that works perfectly well regardless of race, religion, creed, or income level.) For more specific recommendations, start here. Note that pepper spray and/or Mace (CN gas) or best, the combination of pepper spray pressurized by Mace in jurisdictions that allow it is a good thing to carry outside your home even now. If you carry it, don't hesitate too long about using it. Based on experience. People generally live through getting sprayed. People often don't live through what criminals have in mind.

  If you plan to buy firearms for self-defense for Y2K, BUY GUNS RIGHT NOW!!!. New gun control legislation was passed in a couple of states within a few days of the Littleton, CO massacre by people who are perfectly aware that those laws would not have saved any lives in Colorado and won't save any children's lives in the future. There has been a movement in the US to ban private possession of firearms for years. The anti-gun hysteria which is being deliberately fomented by politicians and mass media will result in more anti-gun legislation which will make it harder for you, the law-abiding citizen to purchase the most powerful tool for self-defense available in current technology. If 911 is totally down in your area and you become the target of a home invasion robbery, not having a gun in the house probably means no recourse against the intruder, particularly if you are a single woman with kids. Since my opinions with respect to Littleton have other than that they will make guns harder to buy (already happened) are not relevant to a Y2K page, you can find them on my Gun Control, Censorship, and Littleton page.

• Here is the closest thing I've found to an online unarmed self-defense course. Looks good, at least at first glance. Good things to know right now, even without a disaster in the future. Though since there is time, taking martial arts classes is also a good way to prepare for Y2K season. The physical and mental conditioning is a good thing to have in any emergency situation. (The above link no longer works, it's a placeholder to remind me to find a replacement link. If you know of one, please catch me in e-mail - NOW.)
• Try hard not to need medical services on 12/31/1999 - 1/1/2000. Leaving out the obvious problems, such as what will probably be the fallout from the heaviest wave of partying in the last thousand years, there are Y2K problems. There are many embedded computers in hospitals, often in objects one wouldn't think of as computers. A lot of those aren't going to be working on New Year's Day 2000. If you've got elective surgery, schedule well before or well after. If the surgery is necessary, get it well before the 12/1999. "Half of the nation's 6,000 hospitals will not be Y2K compliant" when the new year rolls in, particularly those in rural areas, estimates U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett." (chairman of the Senate Year 2000 Committee)
• While airplanes probably won't be flying 12/31/1999, if they are allowed to fly, I don't recommend being in a commercial plane. Private plane? It might be intelligent to test the internal timekeeping system for Y2K compliance and to fly to/from rural areas, if troubles show up with the ATC systems. . . and keep your eyes open for planes with malfunctioning guidance systems. Here is an IEEE Spectrum article on expected Y2K ATC problems
• This site is by a group that's figuring out low cost food storage, electric power, etc. alternatives and selling kits, plans, things like food-grade buckets, water storage, oxygen absorbers for long term storage, etc. It also has good basic information on survival in the kinds of situations many people may be facing during the year 2000. Check this out.
• If you have Y2K topics you'd like to discuss CONFIDENTIALLY, be warned that your e-mail is NOT private, that your system administrators or crimimal, government, or corporate hackers can read it at any time, you can get the PGP privacy protection program freeware for DOS,linux,Win 95,Win NT,Mac Sys 7.5+ at these sites:
  PGP freeware for US Citizens ONLY
  PGP freeware for anyone OUTSIDE the US

  You can also get a phone security program will make your phone calls or Internet voice conferences (Net phone) at the freeware sites as well.

  Get the commercial version (about $100, worth it) at the PGP Inc. site. If you're planning to use it for business applications, this is the one you should get. It will work with the freeware versions.

  You can get my current PGP key here. If and only if you have my old PGP key, get the key revocation certificate for that key here.

• This is intended as an overview, not a shopping list. For a much more detailed list, go to INDIVIDUAL PREPARATION FOR Y2K at The Cassandra Project site. This foresees the kind of scenario I do. Good common sense stuff, though I disagree with them with respect to guns, they don't recommend them, I say get one (see above) For "end of the world" ... sorry, I'm still researching.
• Here's another list intended for a worse scenario than this site is intended to deal with. I think it's interesting reading, it should give you some helpful preparation ideas.
• Mother Earth News is one of the most important resources on self-reliance, alternative energy resources, information on how things were done before modern technology. While there are a few things of interest on the site, there doesn't seem to be the article database in place needed to make the best use of a magazine site. Buy a copy off a newsstand and see what you think.
• "To Build A Fire": Your comfort and perhaps your life may depend on being able to build a fire. Get plenty of strike-anywhere kitchen matches. A Zippo lighter is a good investment, they are reliable. If you get one, get plenty of flints and a few large cans of lighter fluid. And get a spare, while the manufacturer gives it a lifetime guarantee, it takes time you may not have to get it to the factory and back. There's also always a chance you might lose it. Note that if you have any Bic type lighters, the flints in them can be recycled into Zippo type lighters, the diameter is the same, but Bic flints are longer, they're brittle and can be trimmed to avoid damage to the lighter spring with the cutting edge of a small pair of pliers. If fluid is gone or you have a Bic type lighter, it may be possible to use one with the cover removed as an ignitor for dry tinder. The Bic lighter spring might be adaptable to the Zippo, possibly the wheel as well, though you'll need a pop-riveter to mount it properly. Bic lighters would make good trade goods in a severe Y2K situation. Magnifying glasses work well when the sun is out, though whether they will work for you in the winter depends on where you are and local weather conditions and fuel availability. The "To Build a Fire" quote is from a short story by Jack London about a person who hadn't prepared adequately whose life depended on building a fire. I recommend the story.
• Here's a Emergency prep information site
• If it has to do with Y2K preparation and if you can't find it anywhere else, check Ellen's Y2K links. There is a certain amount of overlap between her links and mine, her page is more personal preparation oriented than mine is.
• Don't advertise your preparations, however, you might want to discuss them with someone you knwo to be preparing, combining orders for quantity discounts might save you some money. Somebody who finally gets the word as the shit hits the fan and knows that you've prepared might decide that the easiest way to get food and creature comforts might be to take yours, especially if emergency services or the phone goes down in your area.
• Finally, when you buy supplies for preparation, keep your receipts. If things go right and you don't need preparation supplies, you might be able to donate them to a non-profit organization feeding the hungry and take the tax deduction. I'd wait until at least 7/2000 before deciding nothing happened. If "minor" 2000 effects tank the economy, you may be very glad to cook yo`ur Y2K food supplies, not over a camp stove, but on your regular cooking facilities as you're waiting for unemployment benefits to kick in.

While most police and fire departments will probably be fully mobilized on New Years Eve, 1999, 911 may not work, emergency service dispatching communications equipment may not work, it's possible that even automotive computer systems on police / fire vehicles might not work. I'm figuring 911 failure as most likely. Emergency rooms at hospitals may not be fully functional due to electronics or power failure.

This is pretty much what FEMA and other groups say you should keep around your place in case whatever natural disasters are common to where you live (earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes) strike. Even 1/1/2000 is just another day for the world, if you prepare as I suggest, your efforts and money will not be wasted. You'll be ready for the natural or manmade disaster which will be coming for you sooner or later, or you'll be ready to go camping. Here is more by FEMA on emergency preparation. Also here is brief advice on long-term food stockpiling.

The reason why organizations who advise people on how to prepare for disaster say 3 days is that this is how long it generally takes disaster relief from unaffected areas to come in. Since this situation cover a larger area than anything anyone has ever seen (like the whole world), more extensive preparation is in order. The emergency organizations themselves or the methods used for transporting aid may themselves be too caught up in Y2K problems to be able to respond normally to your disaster. Aid might come in weeks or months or possibly, never depending on where you are and how hard your area, region, or country got hit.

Being outside a major city would probably be a good thing. Imagine being next to, or worse, in an inner city where the welfare checks for 1/1/2001 didn't show up. (even if the reasons had nothing to do with Y2K) I'm pretty sure this will actually happen somewhere. Combine this with the distinct possibility that we're going to find out the hard way that some public safety agencies aren't Y2K ready, I foresee a hot time in several old towns that night. Even if there aren't any riots, if 911 service goes down, which is likely in a number of places, fire departments may not find out about fires until entire city blocks are ablaze. I'd be more surprised than not if we don't lose a major city or two on the New Year's Day - 2000 weekend even if almost everything goes right everywhere in the US. Which it won't. Don't be in one. I plan to spend that weekend on vacation in a rural area somewhere. 

There is a well informed body of opinion (and a few nuts) who thinks that 1/1/2000 will be the end of civilization. These people recommend survivalist level preparations, up to and including a retreat way back in the hills stocked with years of food and supplies needed to make long-term subsistence farming possible. They might be right, though I don't agree with them. While a tetreat is probably the best way to get through y2k-panic in the first few weeks of 2000, I think it'll probably be possible to start participating in the recovery process starting shortly thereafter. There are too many people who enjoy the comforts of civilization to lightly walk away from it and there are too many tools which will allow its repair, at least at minimum functional levels to make it reasonable to take for granted that everything is going down forever. I'll be adding survivalist oriented links somewhere on this site in the next few weeks.

Here's a survivalist oriented link, but a moderately realistic one, they advocate that you also plan for the case where year 2000 happens and society survives pretty much intact. Warning, the site owner is Religious Right, so take the practical how-to information and ignore the political and religious propaganda. y2kchaos This is good advice for many of the better Y2K information and preparation sites.

Effects on Society / the World

As for the Internet, I'm guessing a number of ISPs will be down for reasons ranging from local power / phone outages to backbone problems. If you've got power and your ISP is working, you'll be able to connect to quite a few places... though traffic may take much longer to get from place to place than normal. The good news is that the Internet was designed to tolerate the kind of outage level that goes with a nuclear attack. The bad news is that if your ISP doesn't have power, your messages go nowhere. However, if you don't have power, you've got more immediate problems. You also won't be able to connect to quite a few places and people. Your data traffic may have to go via direct modem connect for a few days if you've got anyone who's up to send it to you can get through to via phone. If you work for an Internet Service Provider or if you are wondering about issues relating to operating ISPs under y2K conditions, click here.

One problem with the totally worst case scenario of everything breaking at once is that not all mainframes are "old iron", I doubt you can buy a new or relatively recent mainframe that isn't Y2K compliant, and I doubt anyone has written code in the last couple of years or so that doesn't recognize 4 digit dates. However, be wary of "good" deals on older mainframe / supermini hardware, the owners may be unloading for a very good reason. The worst case fears are about the amazing amount of 10-20 year old legacy code that's been patched, updated, modified that has been ported over to newer systems and not checked for Y2K, and embedded systems (anything which isn't defined as a computer but has a computer chip in it).

Another is that not all embedded systems care what year it is. The best example is the computer embedded in your microwave or toaster. (Your VCR might have a problem. . . however, not being able to record videos via timer is annoying, not dangerous.) The good news is that most date-sensitive household applicances are Y2K compliant. For more information (e.g. which ones aren't) click here.

Finally, the word will have gotten out to the general public months before the deadline that there is a problem and that anyone who wants to be in business in 2000 will fix it. With the exceptions of the very few large companies who need years, not months or weeks to fix their most critical operations and didn't start in 1998, those companies who couldn't find the expertise in time, and those too stupid to understand the word when they get it, just about everything will be mostly fixed. This document is written around that moderately optimistic scenario. Say, 80% of everyone with Y2K problems getting them 80% fixed is sufficient to require that anyone who wants to survive early 2000 comfortably will prepare as I recommend here.

What should your local governments should be doing about possible Y2K problems? Obviously, all government agencies should do whatever Y2K fixes are necessary so that they will be able to continue doing business in 2000. As for their response to Y2K based emergencies due to infrastructure breakdown, the most important thing they should be doing is arrangements to continue emergency services in the event of loss of electric power and telephone communications. This means emergency generators (emergency service dispatch, police / fire stations, critical city hall functions, and some spares in case hospitals, etc. run short) and weeks worth of stored fuel that does not require electric power to dispense from tanks. Warehousing non-perishable food and putting together emergency soup kitchens not dependent on utility power would be intelligent. Emergency shelters, especially in cold weather areas with heat make sense. If you decide to check with local elected officials to see what the state of your community Y2K preparations and they're totally clueless, refer them to this article from Money Magazine. Also, try them on this Business Week article. This is also a good starting point for dealing with business people who are new to this. A community organizing site I haven't checked with is Napa Y2K, this might give you an idea about how one community is organizing. In this Computerworld article, William Ulrich suggests that the US government Y2K policy may foster panic instead of reducing it.

Here is a discussion of work financed by the Naval War College on recommended government responses to Y2K trouble.

The real problem with these measures is that local communities are simply not up to the task of housing all of their inhabitants in emergency shelter in the event of a regional power outage. The best they can be expected to do is to provide shelter for the elderly, homeless, and others who can't prepare for Y2K trouble themselves. Sheltering everybody in emergency shelters isn't all that great an idea to begin with. A cold-weather emergency shelter is the ideal way to spread epidemics.

You can find a budget / bill of materials for an emergency command center designed to function under emergency conditions here. The main difference between this and ordinary emergency facilities design is that I made a serious effort to optimise for minimum power consumption. It's an Excel spreadsheet.

At the Federal level, other than the obvious tasks of remediating all government computer systems and providing assistance to local communities / counties / states for preparation, I've recommended to the President's Commission on Y2K's Chairman, John Koskinen that the goverment take drastic action to encourage individual household preparation, mainly:

1. Start a program to finance Y2K preparation at up to $500 per household available to every American household. (and get the money back via taxes over the next few years)
2. for the lowest income brackets, combine a lower check with a one-time extra food stamp benefit
3. Have the President address the nation on why this needs doing and to warn the nation that in the event of serious trouble, the Federal government may not have sufficient resources to provide the traditional disaster relief. Encourage at least 1 month preparation and tell citizens that they should supplement this Y2K money with their own money if they possibly can.
4. Mass mail a Y2K pamphlet on the order of the AIDS pamphlet mailed by the Feds a few years ago, but giving people a summary of Y2K and the problems, and presenting solid information on how to prepare at the household level.
5. Cost: about $50,000,000,000... paid by taxpayers over the next few years.

Koskinen said in private e-mail (I may link a copy here) that this plan is too expensive and unwarranted. If absolutely nothing bad happens for Y2K, it is. Even if the impact is limited to a major recession, a month or two or more of food might make waiting for the first unemployment checks a lot easier. If the unemployment programs are hit so hard that checks are months in coming, this would really help. If there are major long term power outages anywhere in the US, this would save lives and make fixing them a lot easier.

Actually, Koskinen deserves credit for taking the time to provide a courteous, if illogical response. If there is no reason for Y2k household preparation, just what is being discussed at these secret sessions on Y2K that elected government officials and others are having? Find more on them on the Y2KCulture personal site run by Declan McCullagh of Wired News. Copies of my proposal were sent to staff members of the Congressional Commitee handling Y2K and ignored. As for why I didn't mass e-mail Congress, it's widely known that e-mail sent to Congress is counted pro / con on issues, not actually read. If you know any Congresspeople who might be interested in the full version of my proposal, have them catch me in e-mail.

If things get bad and your elected officials tell you that "There was absolutely nothing we could do", you now know in advance that they will be lying to you. While there may be alternative methods to insure that a supermajority of households will be solidly prepared for Y2K, they need to be started now to be usable. Nothing is happening.

This is a tale of a major city which may actually have somebody competent running their Y2K planning. Would you believe Los Angeles? I wish this person success in his efforts, and hope that upper-level city management doesn't undercut his efforts or fire him. Check this out.

Here's what The Federal Emergency Management Agency's United States Fire Administration (USFA) and the FCC have to say about possible emergency services communications problems in The Year 2000 Bug and Public Safety Communications. This is something your fire and police chiefs should take a deep and personal interest in. Here is Police Y2K Preparation Guide issued by the UK Police Information Technology Organization. It appears mainly oriented larger / metropolitian police departments, but the appendices at the end of the document listing equipment likely to celebrate the New Year in 2000 by failing totally, or worse, producing false information should be of interest regardless of the size of the department. If you are from a major metropolitan UK police organization, you might find this novel and interesting reading, as the government millenium people are suggesting that the recommended remediation has NOT been done yet. (5/21/1999) Given that you are looking at this in late May or afterwards, I suggest for your own health and safety that you find out what the hell is going on with your department. More information of interest to residents of the UK is on Home Office Y2K page.

This is the Texas Guidebook 2000 from the State of Texas Y2K office. Looks excellent, especially if you're doing Y2K planning for a government or large business. I like the contingency planning section.

Here is the Managing the Y2K Problem in Local Government from the Iowa State government. It looks useful. Their contingency planning section looks optimistic to me, but that's easy enough to compensate for.

Here's a story on the Canadian military planning for Y2K disaster relief. Here's More Canadian Military Preparedness.

This is the first story about any US military organization planning to do anything about Y2K trouble, THE SAS and other special services are to deal with outbreaks of civil disorder and the collapse of utilities under secret plans being drawn up by the armed forces to cope with the millennium bug.

The optimistic estimate above is US / Canada only. Here's a Wired News article about how well the rest of the world's prepared for Y2K. Major problems I don't think the article covered are: the idiots running the European Community decided to impose the Euro currency in the 1999-2000 timeframe. Changing how every computer in Europe handles local currency is a problem comparable to fixing year 2000; very few organizations have the resources to do both, and reports coming out of Europe say that businesses are concentrating on the Euro conversion. The good news is that if the CIA estimate is correct, Europe averages between 6-9 months behind US compliance and there are claims coming from Europe that their Y2K public awareness is considerably ahead of US public awareness. This suggests that Europe will probably be in comparable condition to the US. If you're in Europe right now, please let me know what you've seen, I don't entirely trust what I've heard. My advice for preparation in Europe is the same as for the US. Here's a cheery piece from ZDnet that's a lot more recent.

If you operate a Canadian small/medium sized business, your Y2K upgrade may be tax deductible: "Accelerated capital cost allowance (CCA) deductions of up to $50,000 will be provided to small- and medium-sized firms for computer hardware and software acquired to replace systems that are not year 2000 compliant. This will allow smaller firms to deduct 100 per cent of eligible expenditures in the year in which they occur."

From a recent Usenet post: "In this week's edition of 'Technology Corner,' columnist David Eddy discusses the recent report from Statistics Canada that states that 'in order to make the necessary Y2K deadlines, Canadian companies are planning on increasing their project productivity by factors of 200, 300, and 400 percent.' Mr. Eddy continues, 'Individual organizations may, under extraordinary circumstances, be able to achieve that sort of productivity ramp-up in a potato chip factory, but it simply does not happen with complex intellectual work like Y2K projects.' What does this all mean? Read on to find out.

For further information on Y2K-related programs and general Y2K advice in Canada, "Call 1 8� O-Canada (1 800 622-6232; TTY 1 800 465-7735),a toll-free line set-up on behalf of the Government of Canada, for information on the government's Year 2000 preparedness activities, including publications and tools to assist businesses, organizations and consumers in their Year 2000 planning. The service also provides phone numbers and Web sites for the provinces, territories, and some private sector associations that you can contact for more Y2K information.".

As for Asia. . . I'm not sure what to tell you other than that we are hearing practically nothing coming out of Asia about fixing year-2000 problems. The financial institutions are concentrating on the fallout from the current economic downturn, other business organizations seem to be ignoring it. If I lived in Asia, particularly Japan, I'd consider departing. The bad news is that I can't recommend anywhere as a safe place to depart to. (consensus on Usenet year-2000 newsgroups and elsewhere: "Asia is toast!") Asia is estimated at 2 years behind the US.

Africa and South America. . . would anyone like to tell me what's going on down there? We aren't getting a lot of year-2000 news out of either place. (except for South Africa) It may be that the infrastructure is sufficiently primitive that year-2000 won't make a whole lot of difference outside the big cities, except for the services rural areas depend on big cities for that won't be happening. Of course, the real bad news would be, I'd think, the numbers of armed bands floating around after the government computers crash and there's no way to pay the army, etc. This suggests political instability, probably violent in quite a few places.

The head of Russia's atomic energy program says he's going to fix whatever breaks after the year 2000 happens. I'm glad I don't live downwind from one of their nuclear reactors. I'm merely wondering why some ex-KGB operatives haven't tried reasoning with that moron using the persuasion techniques agency operatives were famous for. The other news out of Russia is very, very bad.

I will say that I heard that a financial consultant actually advised American companies to forget about year 2000, that we need to concentrate on getting ready for the Euro conversion. That advice is stupid even for companies which reside in Europe. If your company does business and has the resources to do the Euro conversion after getting Y2K done and tested, go for it. If your company can't do both, make the Euro a secondary priority. For most companies, immediate conversion to the Euro is desirable but not essential. No matter where you are, if your computers go down and stay down on 1/1/2000, you won't be doing business anywhere.

As for travel plans, it's already known that some airlines won't be flying towards the end of 1999 / beginning of 2000. There are lots of embedded systems in airplanes and their support facilities, FAA computer facilities are notoriously obsolete, and it's quite possible that all civilian commercial air operations will be shut down during the transition period. If you're planning any plane trips for winter 1999, you'll do well to avoid 12/16/1999 - 1/15/2000. While some rail systems will probably continue to run, some haven't started Y2K work, either. Don't figure on rail transportation being available. If you go during the time window I mentioned above, make sure before you leave that you are welcome for an extended stay wherever you're going if things work out that way.

The Fortune 500 are mostly already in panic mode, and that's why most of them will still be in business in 2000. The ones that aren't will be in panic mode in the next few months. After that, this will hit the mass media and every business that hasn't gotten a fix already underway will be hiring people or sending their computers out to be checked / fixed. When that happens, you want to be wondering if your suppliers are going to be ready, not about whether your computers will be ready or not. Start your year 2000 checkout process right now. See below for how.

Admittedly, perspectives vary. I know of one computer journalist who says she actually believes that 1/1/2000 will just be another day, here's the link to the dumbest story she's ever written. If you read it, note the lack of discussion with any technical people, just the most optimistic group of industry analysts (about 10 layers removed from the real action) who've gone public on Y2K. Can't account for how she blew this one, she's generally very good. Of course, her Mac will probably get through 1/1/2000 fine. She lives in San Francisco, though, so if she doesn't change her mind between now and 1/1/2000, she may not get through the New Year. I hope she reads this page (Hi, Rebecca!) and changes her mind quickly. I also hope nobody dies of taking her advice. It took me entirely too long to get the Y2K point myself, this page should have been up a year ago. Hamasaki's Y2K Weather Reports. Cory Hamasaki is the most respected poster on the comp.software.year-2000 newsgroup and is probably the world's top authority on Y2K as it impacts mainframes, large organizations, and government. He's a top bracket mainframe programmer, if your organization has to ask what he costs, it can't afford him. These reports are snapshots of the current situation as he sees it. The most recent reports from him are more frightening than HP Lovecraft on a good day.

So what about my computer?

Hint: An estimate I saw recently said that 97% of all personal computers (I assume PCs are meant) are non-compliant. I now believe the estimate. This ranges from computers which will merely need to have the date / time reset the first time someone uses it on 1/1/2000 or after to computers whose time/date can NOT be reset to 2000 even by software patch. While newer machines and software mostly are compliant, check it yourself, your machine might have gotten a BIOS and RTC out of the back of the storeroom and be the only one built that day that aren't compliant. The preceding only deals with hardware compliance. That's the easy part. The hard part is making sure your software is compliant, and the hardest part is making sure your data files; spreadsheets, databases, etc. are compliant.

While I hope everybody will be ready, I don't believe it'll happen this way. There's always somebody who didn't get the word, and that person is likely to be one of your vendors or customers. Keep an eye on stuff going into your computers from outside your organization after 1/1/2000.

If your business is small enough to be solidly personal computer, you've got time to fix it if you don't waste time wondering whether or not you need to fix it. If you're running larger non-PC systems, check with whoever is running your IT (Information Technology) stuff to find out how big your problem is. If the person doesn't know that there is a problem, consider replacing that person. But send him or her here first, and if you can't get a report on how big your problem is after this after the person checks the links out of here, find someone else before it's too late.

Business should also start checking your suppliers and customers, mission-critical ones first. Let your suppliers know that if you can't get straight answers from them, you'll find other ones who will tell you what's going on. You can find links to the Small Business Administration files on year2000 business compliance below. Also, especially if you're running JIT (Just In-Time) with suppliers, borrow or rent warehouse space, your deliveries may get interrupted even if your suppliers are 100% ready.

Wintel / (DOS, Windows 3.x, 9.x) compliance

Warning for Wintel users: You've probably heard of the test that says "set your computer's internal clock to December 31, 1999, 11:58 PM and wait 5 minutes." It is NOT good enough. There are THREE clocks on your motherboard. You can only get to ONE from date/time settings. I found this out the hard way. Well, not quite as hard as finding out on 1/1/2000. The good news is that the only fix required for many computers under certain circumstances is simply rebooting in the year 2000 and entering the correct date/time. The other thing you must remember is that MS says that once you've downloaded whatever MS says you need to make your OS and applications Y2K compliant, whether it works correctly or not depends on the hardware. If you are running on a network operating system, find out from your vendor what level of Y2K hardware compliance is necessary for the server and workstations on the network.

If you've got a machine more than 2 years old, you probably should back up the control configuration settings in CMOS and replace the battery. If you've got a newer machine, find out what kind of battery it needs and buy one or two spares. Finding replacement batteries post-2000 may be extremely difficult for an unknown period of time.

Microsoft Products Y2K Trouble.

For Microsoft, Y2K compliance for their products seems to be a moving target. I recommend that you bookmark this URL link, it'll take you straight here. Once you've got your patches installed, check back occasionally, their patches keep getting replaced with new patches intended to fix new bugs. I suspect that some of the "y2k" patches also contain non-Y2K bug fixes as well. You could wait until the last minute, of course, but if you do, be warned that a site running on multiple NT servers has a very, very limited capability to handle peak loads. You may not be able to download your Y2K patches at the last minute. That's why their hotmail site runs Linux.

Check to see if the free rental Microsoft Y2K computer preparation video is available from your local Blockbuster Video store yet. It's supplied with a copy of the MS Y2K-fix CDROM described in the next paragraph which provides fairly complete fixes for MS operating systems and applications. You can download the video here. To see an article about it, click here. The bad news is that much of what's on it is obsolete. For more information, click here

A CDROM is available from Microsoft which is free to registered product users. From Microsoft: "In addition to a wealth of information, white papers and Microsoft Excel Plug-Ins, the enhanced Microsoft Year 2000 Resource CD now contains easy-to-use and simple-to-install product updates for the Microsoft Windows(R) 95, Windows 98 and Windows NT(R) 4.0 Service Pack 4 operating systems, as well as Office 95, Office 97 and Microsoft Works 4.5a. The Microsoft Year 2000 Product Analyzer is also included on the CD, allowing a customer to scan a computer's hard drive, or mapped network drive(s), looking for core Microsoft products and immediately generating a report with Y2K-compliance information. The CD also provides links to additional product information and updates if needed. Customers can subscribe to this quarterly CD-ROM free of charge via the Microsoft year Y2k CDROM page or by calling 1-888-MSFT-Y2K (1-888-673-8925). This suggests that they are expecting to come out with new Y2K bug fixes for the rest of the year. I don't know if the CDROM as shipped has the most current bug fixes... but you can always be sure if it's Microsoft... that you CAN'T be sure. I've also heard there are problems with the MS Y2K Product Analyzer. Anybody who has a copy who has tried it, catch me in e-mail. the bad news... it is obsolete, see above..

If you're still running Win3.x , Window 3.x is NOT compliant unless you download a fix from Microsoft,

Windows NT is NOT compliant unless you download the latest fix from Microsoft. See below for where.

Windows 95 is NOT compliant unless you install the latest program patches made available in November. Even if you have downloaded and installed the earlier fix from MS, you need to get the new one. The original fix replaced two files, the new one replaces several more. See below for where. Aren't you glad you bought Microsoft?

Windows 98 at this time is NOT compliant,except for the 2nd Edition. There is a patch in the downloadable Service Kit available. They claim that this is all that is needed. Go to PC Profile to get the right link at the Microsoft site for whichever MS operating system or applications you are running. Believe me, it's a lot easier than trying to use the Microsoft search engine.

Machines running MS software may work through 2000, and break on 12/31/2001! For the announcement from MS, click here.

Remember, even if your machine is 100% compliant and your operating system has been made compliant, your major applications may not be. Check with your vendors, most are on the Web. It is known that not all Microsoft applications are Y2K compliant, especially the older ones. If you've got custom applications or industry specific applications, check very carefully. If there isn't a fix ready, you may have to replace these applications or have them rewritten. Better you do this now. More fun to do it now than to go to a computer store on New Year's Day, 2000 and find that the next load of Y2K compliant applications will be delivered ??/??/2000.

This article gives useful information on how to find out if your applications have problems, how to fix problems with database, spreadsheet, etc. files,

A Y2K problem scanner for applications running in Win 3.x / 9.x can be downloaded free, check Netsavers NET2000 Total Year 2000 Scanner and let me know if you try it and how well it worked for you.

Here is an online personal computer software compliance database listing applications by vendor name and list of applications with "no issue exists", "issue exists", etc.

Wintel Y2K diagnostic packages:

These check your PC (Wintel platform) hardware for year-2000 compliance. WARNING! Copy diagnostics you download onto a bootable floppy. (use File Manaqer to make a bootable floppy unless you know how to do it from DOS) Boot from that floppy and run the diagnostic from the floppy at the DOS prompt. Do NOT run your Y2K diagnostic from your hard drive. If you're using a diagnostic intended to test software, back up your whole system first!!! The problem is that in order to operate, diagnostics have to set the system clock to the year 2000 one or more times. Some software is sensitive to this, i.e., virus check software will tell you that it's out of date because it thinks that it's 2000, time-limited beta test software will suddenly expire, and other date-sensitive software will suddenly start doing the unexpected. I was lucky that the only problem I found was "out of date" virus checking software. I just tested the RightTime software diagnostic below which does a reboot as part of the test process from floppy, it works fine, as did my system when I booted normally from the hard drive afterwards. I was reminded of this while reading the year-2000 discussion mailing list available at year2000.com. (I'd noticed the effect, since it didn't give me serious problems, I attributed it correctly to my Y2K tests and forgot it might give others serious trouble,)

By the way, you should virus check these downloads just like you should virus-check anything else that goes onto your computer. In a network environment, virus-check, RTC, and BIOS Y2K compatibility is the network administrator's problem, there are companies where a user loading software onto her own PC could get fired. In these cases, you might talk to the network admin, and if that person doesn't believe that Y2K is a problem and you can't even get the person to look into it, start looking for another job, that employer is likely not to exist after 1/1/2000. You can get downloadable virus-check software at the McAfee subsidiary of Network Associates. (As for virus checking that download, you may have gotten a virus check application with your PC. Otherwise, I guess there are exceptions for every rule.)

By the way, if you don't have a backup tape drive or whatever, spend $150 or so and buy one, or if you want a really cheap backup system and have a slot free, spend about $70 for something that uses your VCR as backup media. For more information, click here.

DOSCHK is the utility I recommend for testing for Wintel Y2K hardware problems on individual personal computers, it's more informative than the other ones and in the new revision, does support the reboot in 2000 test. You can get it at the DOSCHK page. The documentation supplied with it will explain the hardware problem clearly if you know computer hardware. It also has a (very short) list of computers found Y2K compliant. this one from AMI will tell you which components (RTC, BIOS) passed / failed. This one is suitable if you feel the need for a backup test for confirmation.

There are other diagnostic packages, but I believe the above provide satisfactory performance. While remediation suites generally do analysis of network hardware and can provide software patches, there are reasons for being suspicious of the software fix for network and certain other applications.

Here is a diagnostic tool which may indeed be useful for system adminstrators who wish to run Wintel box testing over a network. Through a script file customized by the administrator, it can be made to do pretty much anything required for a diagnostic tool, including reporting and including the reboot test.. Check it out at Y2Kare. I don't recommend it for an individual unless that person wants to test a number of PCs using a standardized format for a test lab or customer service environment, this is a program one has to learn how to use. While other tools are designed for network fixes, this one looks best for the PC hardware testing of a network, use the other tools for other issues (e.g. which workstations have non-compliant applications, )

The first generation software fix usually works by resetting the BIOS clock, which will work for systems which will hold a 2000 date. Note that the clock will have to be reset to 2000 if the PC battery goes down or is replaced. It will not work on all machines or all software. The fix will not work on programs that make direct BIOS or RTC calls, but this is fairly rare for applications running on computers used in the home. One software fix actually emulates the RTC/CMOS and BIOS and actually does intercept the calls. The bad news is that I can't remember which one it is. The second generation fix is one that intercepts RTC calls, that's the one Compaq and Dell will be providing. If you need a software patch, check your computer or motherboard vendor first, then check the IBM driver information below.

IBM has written a year-2000 driver that appears to provide a BIOS / RTC fix for all but the very most critical real-time situations, with the exception of the BIOS chips that can not accept 2000 dates. It appears to run on almost any computer whether manufactured by IBM or not. If your computer is noncompliant as shown by tests and your vendor doesn't provide a fix, see below.

You can find the IBM PC evaluation tool IBM Prototype Evaluation Tool, and the program to find out if your computer is compatible with the drivers (chek the Not Ready section of the page) and the drivers on the IBM Prototype Device Driver page. Run the tools in this order, evaluation tool, compatibility tool, driver installation. Evaluation will tell you if you have a problem, compatibility will tell you if the driver will fix it, drivers is the software fix. DOS, Win3.x, Win95, NT, OS/2 Warp are supported. Will the W95 driver work with a W98 machine? I don't know. This fix took my machine from non-compliant BIOS (rollover failure) and RTC to fully compliant BIOS and RTC as measured by AMI2000 and DOSCHK evaluation programs, Your mileage may vary. Note the words "prototype" on these pages, if this fix gives your machine trouble, it's your problem, not mine or IBM's,. Good luck.

In some machines the clock or BIOS can NOT be set for 2000 and the hardware must be replaced, it's unlikely the Dell/Compaq fix will help you. I'm deleting my previous software fix recommendations pending release of the Dell / Compaq fixes, I'll give new recommendations (probably in the form of "here's where to get it, download it, install it, and get to work on your software") when the patches are released.

If you're running accounting software or other software where an occasional glitch putting the date of your record update as 1/1/1980 means big, expensive problems, don't even think about a software fix. LAN servers are in the hardware-only BIOS and RTC fix category, too unless your software vendors (all of them running on the server) say otherwise. If you're doing real-time test and measurement, you're in the hardware-only category, the software fixes add a few milliseconds to response time. If your network server supplies date / time to the whole network, you're really in the hardware-only fix category. If your LAN provides date and time to the network, I do not know what category of fix (software, hardware, none) is required for the other computers on your network. You are probably best off making everything on the network Y2K compliant at the hardware level, at minimum, BIOS, RTC as well preferable. While this is expensive, exotic forms of network crashes are even more so, see below. The Dell/Compaq software fix is probably the answer.

Another reason for considering a complete BIOS/RTC hardware fix even if it isn't strictly necessary is an exotic effect that has been observed to happen on certain personal computer hardware / software combinations, it results in time / date instabilities resulting in dates spontaneously changing and in extreme cases, scrambling of the CMOS information; hard drive settings, problems in recognition of COM ports, etc. This information is new to me but appears to come from reputable sources, I'll be checking on it myself rather soon. A Y2K compliant RTC will fix this problem. (see below) I think what's going on is whatever software is reading the time is alternating between reading the RTC/CMOS directly and reading either the BIOS or DOS clocks. (I can guess, but guesses without experimental evidence are only of use in telling where to look on the test bench.) This is discussed in the "Time Dilation" or "Crouch-Echlin" effects pages below. Note that this is mainly a problem on 286 / 386 machines, but if these are the "embedded" parts of your "embedded systems", this could be serious trouble for you. The state of information on time dilation is completely unsettled at this point, there are arguments at this point as to the cause or even whether the effect is simply experimental error. More information will be available here when I've got some.

• Jim Crouch's research is here.
• Mike Echlin's research is here.
• A test for time dilation susceptability. Whether or not you should do anything about it if it finds your machine is susceptable I simply do not know. Remember that you should have your CMOS information backed up as a file and on paper in case you should ever wind up with a CMOS scrambled for whatever reason.

Wintel Hardware Fixes

including unix running on x86 platforms

This section is in the revision process. (10/25/1998)

The best fixes for a computer that isn't compliant is a replacement BIOS and/or RTC (real-time clock) if needed. Almost no one needs that fix, with the possible exception of people running the most critical real-time process control and laboratory test and measurement software and network servers.

The following chart will be revised when I know exactly what the IBM driver fix does and it is in a condition where I can safely advise people to use it. I don't know what they will be doing about non-compliant BIOSes so my final comment on this topic will have to wait for that. I now do know, they say that even if the BIOS is compliant or replaced later with a compliant BIOS, there is no problem.

WINTEL REQUIRED HARDWARE COMPLIANCE - in revision process

minimum compliance needed	home/office no network COTS	office LAN workstation COTS	network server real-time use non-COTS anything on Novell LAN
software patch	X	X
compliant BIOS
compliant BIOS + compliant RTC			X
BIOS can't be set to a 2000 date and can't be replaced	replace	replace	replace

I no longer see a reason to merely have a compliant BIOS, if the BIOS is compliant and the RTC isn't, there's generally no reason to simply use the IBM driver, unless your vendor has other specific recommendations. Replace means either replace the motherboard or the entire computer.

Note that Microsoft says that NT workstations/servers must have Y2K compliant RTC/CMOS according to their definition of compliance , and Novell says that anything on a Novell LAN must be RTC/CMOS compliant to stay in warranty. I'd say better safe than sorry, get a Y2K-compliant RTC/CMOS on the server, install a patch making BIOS / RTC compliant if necessary and find something better to worry about. If this means fixing a few thousand workstations, this is still probably cheaper than finding out the hard way which products "don't conform to 'good' programming" practices.

It is claimed that the new service pack for Windows NT4 is both Year-2000 and Euro ready. Good luck, you'll need it, here's the link.

Novell network compliance information.

Most people don't need true hardware compliance given the existence of downloadable RTC fixes available from many vendors or if yours doesn't have one, from IBM. If you're running real-time process control or real-time lab / test and measurement applications, or a network server, you might need true hardware compliance. A small network server might get by with a BIOS and RTC software patch, particularly if the IBM patch is compatible with the server in question. If I remember correctly, the IBM software fix is specified to work with Y2K-ready BIOSes.

For those who need true hardware compliance, whether you get this in the form of a new motherboard, or chips is your choice. If these chips are socketed on your computer, fixing them shouldn't be a problem. If you've checked your BIOS and RTC and you know they're both non-compliant and socketed, get the chips and pop them in. This alternative makes most sense for a technically knowledgable person with her/his own personal computer, or pay a technician. The software utilities above should tell you which (BIOS, RTC, or both) need to be fixed. For where to get the chips, see below. I now believe based on a recent comp.software.year-2000 posting from a person from a company selling BIOS boards that while they are probably workable for Windows through version 9.x, they are not suitable for network operating systems such as -ix / Linux / NT.

Resource 800 sells the Dallas Semiconductor Y2K compliant RTC chips to end users. This will fix the clock problem in almost all cases. It costs $24.95 plus shipping/tax. Note that not all computers have real-time clocks compatible with the Dallas Semiconductor Y2K compliant chips, and some have the chips soldered in. For those computers, try the software patch and relegate them to home / non-network use. Read what they have to say about Y2K hardware issues, including the BIOS. Note that the reason why I recommend downloading the hardware diagnostic program to bootable floppy and running the procedure from the DOS prompt after booting from floppy is to avoid the problems of unpleasant things happening to your computer as a result of programs seeing a "bad" system date or the possibility of serious problems if you run the diagnostic with Windows NT (source - Resource 800). The other option is the RTC board in the board fix section below.

Year-2000 compatible BIOS chips you get from the manufacturer or your computer vendor. Note that if they can't help you, look into Mr. BIOS. This company claims their line of BIOS chips will support a wide range of motherboards If the parts are required and socketed on your machine, parts cost is probably in the $25-60 range ($60 for both- I'm guessing on BIOS cost) plus installation labor. (I'd estimate 1/2 hour for socketed chips.)

If you have relatively new (Pentium/PII/486DX100 or faster) PC, you probaly have a flash BIOS. Fixing this should simply be a download from the vendor's Web site plus following the installation instructions. Check! The price of this upgrade might be 1/2 hour of labor for the first machine (including finding the right BIOS upgrade and downloading it to floppy) and 10 minutes per machine after that. The bad news is that if anything goes wrong, your machine is dead, you won't even be able to boot from floppy, so think about whether or not you want to chance this. You might be better off with the IBM software Y2K patch. Ask wherever you bought it from or the manufacturer how they can help if something goes wrong before downloading the new flash BIOS software. Unless the instructions say otherwise, I'd suggest putting the Flash BIOS upgrade program on a bootable floppy, booting it straight from floppy, and running the program at the DOS prompt. If you boot to Windows and your regular TSRs, etc., there's a possibility that something running in your regular operating environment may interfere with the data stream to your flash BIOS, and if so, you're going to need immediate help to get your computer running.

If your computer has a soldered-in BIOS chip that is NOT a flash (software upgradable) ROM, your options are getting a BIOS board (see below), motherboard replacement, or new computer, or spending far more money on technician labor (I'd guess a tech will bill 1-2 hours. If nothing goes wrong. If the chips have accessible leads, many surface mount packages don't.) than the board is worth.

Another alternative is a motherboard replacement or even a new computer. If you've got an older motherboard, this may be for you. However, make sure the new motherboard is year2000 compliant. If you know of some not mentioned here that you've checked personally using test software mentioned here that passed both utilities 100%, catch me in e-mail. If you think it's certified because a sticker or advertising says so, check it before telling me about it. Given that this is probably a new motherboard is comparable in price to either replacing soldered in BIOS / RTC chips or to buying a drop-in Y2K BIOS board, if you can find one you know to be compatible, this might be the best answer. Also note that the best way to insure compatibility is find out if your vendor can stick in the Dallas Semiconductor RTC if it isn't already there BEFORE the motherboard is installed. If the motherboard isn't in the case, sticking in a socketed chip takes less than a minute.

I no longer recommend the NSTL compliance suite for testing year-2000 compliance. As I understand it, a lawsuit alleging false advertising was recently filed against Compaq in the UK over its claims of Y2K compliance based on the NSTL test suite, Compaq withdrew the advertising campaign (without legal admission of guilt) rather than attempt to defend the suit. My guess is that the BIOS is compliant and the RTC/CMOS isn't. If you're considering Compaq, they either have or will have a software fix available. Local computer stores are generally very cooperative about customer-requested fixes when the request is part of the order. You might have to explain the problem to the technician in order to have him order the right part, this information isn't going to be common knowledge among PC techicians for several months.

New ones are probably compliant at the BIOS level, but make sure you can return it or get it fixed if it fails your compliance test. Getting a "compliant" machine does not get you off the hook on testing it yourself, and a vendor "certification" of compliance might crash quite nicely in your application.

If you're getting a number of motherboards, build one machine and test compliance before putting the others together. Assuming it passes and you build the others, check every machine for compliance after they're assembled. I'll try to find out more later. Estimated price here is $150+ for the motherboard (AMD K6-233MHz, Triton TX chip set), $100 or so for labor. However, this gives you 2-3 years of reasonably current computer. The kind of motherboard I would look for is one with an AMD K6-200 or faster, an AGP video slot, and a USB port. Before deciding to go this route, remember that new computers (minus monitor/printer,etc.) start at about $600. You can find motherboard reviews for this motherboard type at Tom's Hardware. At this point, simply make sure the BIOS is compliant, you can handle the RTC in almost all cases via patch.

Tyan will be marketing a new line of Y2K compliant motherboards with the Dallas Semicondutor Y2K RTC/CMOS chips, due in 9/1998. The bad news is that the ones announced are all Pentium II, you might ask them about Super7 (the 100 MHz FSB bus supporting K6-2 AMD processors.)

PC Guide is a guide describing the internal workings of a PC (Wintel platform) in sufficient detail to allow knowledgeable users to make changes. This should provide you with background on what goes on in your PC which might help you to better understand what's discussed here.

There's also some good info here on upgrading motherboards. The format at this site is unusual, it's actual chapters from various books from that publisher relating to various aspects of repair / maintenance of PCs. Judging from what I saw on that link, some of these books might be worth buying. Personally, I'd rather have a book next to me than a printout from a Web site if I'm working on PC hardware for the first time.

Another hardware fix is to buy a board to drop into your PC with a 2000-ready BIOS or RTC or both in it. They cost $60-100 at this point. This fix may make sense for many businesses, because by the time you've purchased a RTC chip and a new BIOS chip and paid for someone to install them, you've already spent more than it costs to buy and drop in one of these boards. The review I saw says it'll even work on 286 and 386 machines. The bad news is that I've seen no adequate reviews of this class of products yet (one that mentions that how the board was tested for Y2K compliance, and how the BIOS and RTC were exercised.). I've seen one person so far (older Compaq machine) report that it wouldn't work on his system. Since the point behind a fix of this sort is to allow popping off the top, dropping the board, and slapping on a "2000 hardware compliant" sticker, having machines on which these won't work kind of removes the point from buying them. However, it is possible that the PC clock battery was dead, which is something the BIOS board maker can hardly be blamed for. BIOS fixes will not work on software that reads the RTC/CMOS directly. While this is considered bad programming practice, it's fairly frequent in homegrown programs and is used in network applications.

Of course, at this price, you should be thinking of motherboard replacement, since the price of a low-end motherboard with a fairly fast Pentium / Pentium clone is comparable. Depends on how much longer you're expecting to keep your machine. I'd advise replacing 286-386-486s in most cases. However, I'm expecting the price to drop on these boards. I'd estimate the cost of this to be $60 plus 1/2 hour labor. . . say $100. Do you think your current computer is worth putting $100 into? Of course, if you're dropping the board in yourself, labor isn't as much of a problem. Your call. At this point, I prefer either the BIOS/RTC replacement or another motherboard.

The other bad news is that in a recent (1999-5-18) post, an expert on these boards said that most will work on Windows 9.x and earlier systems, but that this is generally not a solution for network servers. (to look this up, check Dejanews for : comp.software.year-2000, title North Wind Blows From Scotland).

You can get them at:

• Fix2000((bios fix, does not replace clock)
• Millenium BIOS Board about $100 US - does not replace real-time clock.
• Humix BIOS board(US vendor - $75 US)(bios fix, does not replace clock)
• Micro2000 Centurion(US vendor - $60)(real-time clock only fix, will work on most machines with compliant BIOS chips, but test after installation, this depends on how the BIOS was written!)
• Micro Firmware (BIOS fix).
• This board from Link 2000 in the UK claims to have both a Y2K compliant BIOS and RTC. No price given on the site, but if you've got a relatively new system with noncompliance in both RTC and CMOS, this might be a solution for you.

They all seem to be ISA (short slot) boards... set a single jumper if required, drop in, add the provided "2000 Hardware Compliant" sticker. Your computer should be ready. (still researching... is a BIOS board OR a RTC board adequate? Probably, but I'd like to hear from anyone who knows for sure and is NOT employed by any manufacturers or distributors) Now check the applications. (see below - the article on PCs in Computer Currents is a good start.) Presumably, the BIOSes are specially written to handle whatever the RTC puts out and turns it into a 2000 compliant date, at least that's what the product ads I've seen imply. A BIOS-only fix might be adequate for anything short of a network server, but I don't know that for sure.

In Windows, you're going to want to make sure the default Windows format has a 4 digit date. (I'm running Win3.x... some variation of this should work on Win9x.) Go to the International application in the control panel, set it for Century ("1990 vs 90") ON (checked), Day Leading-Zero ON, Month Leading-ON. The standard format is YYYY-MM-DD. (may or may not be acceptable in your office.) This will provide a 4 digit default year to your Windows applications.

Once your hardware is fixed, then check your applications and data. Click here for more information.

By the way, if you're running a network, getting the server compliant does not let you off the hook on getting the workstations on it compliant. If anyone is working on programs running on individual workstations when the network is down or the LAN card is fubared or simply unplugged on purpose, the dates on uncorrected machines (e.g. defaulting to 1980) might do some amazing things to databases or accounting or whatever the uncorrected machines connect to when they are back online with the network. While the "leave the machines off during rollover and reset the dates" might work for you if the test results support this, you have to be 100% sure this will be done on every workstation on the network. Easy in a small office, in a larger enterprise, I'd feel safer if the RTCs worked right.

While this isn't an emergency for you unless you're with a larger company (say, over 12 workstation), get it done before July 1, 1999. I suspect that computer repair shops will suddenly be filled with panicking people by then or not before. Don't be one of them. The people trying to do this at the last minute are likely to find the stores out of stock on whatever they need to get their machines fixed. 

Here's a FAQ on PC-related Y2K probems.

For more information on fixing PC Y2K-related problems, go to UC Berkeley PC Y2K.

Compliance - Everything Else

If you've got a machine more than 2 years old, you probably should back up the control configuration settings in battery backup memory and replace the battery. By control configuration, I mean CMOS for PCs, the Mac version has a variety of names depending on machine generation. If you've got a newer machine, find out what kind of battery it needs and buy one or two spares. Finding replacement batteries post-2000 may be extremely difficult for an unknown period of time.

PowerMacs are compliant, I think that the 68xx0X0 CPU machines are compliant, but making sure is a good idea. Apple Computer.Then check your applications. Then check your data files, i.e. check spreadsheets, databases, etc. for 2 digit dates. Click here for programs that might help here. Warning, before working on that kind of fix, whether checking by hand or using software automated remediation applications, make sure you've backed up the system first!

UNIX is compliant, though it's day of reckoning is sometime in 2038. Your applications and data files may not be. You probably should check your server anyway, at least if it's an older machine. If you're running linux or BSD or other x-nix apps on a Wintel box, download the DOS program from the link above and test it from a bootable floppy. The new RTC patch from Compaq or Dell or IBM should run out of the boot files that run before x-ix take over, if so, your machine is y2k ready after they are installed. However, you may be better off with full hardware compliance if you're running a server. I don't know for sure, which is why my advice is extremely conservative.

Some versions apparently provide automatic remediation, older versions of QNX doesn't unless you download the patch at the vendor site. Basically, check the OS and/or hardware vendor's site and see what they say you need, if anything to be Y2K compliant. Once your hardware is OK, check your applications. Then check your data files, i.e. check spreadsheets, databases, etc. for 2 digit dates. Check your routers and other network software as well. I've heard there are problems and don't know where they are.

To check for Sun workstation / server compliance issues, check the Infoworld article here.

SUN Microsystem Main Y2K Page

IBM's Year 2000 Main Page

LINUX's Year 2000 FAQ.

If you can't find it anywhere else, try here and click the link.

Mainframes - While newer ones are probably Y2K ready, I don't know your environment well enough to give advice, though many of the larger Y2K sites will have information that can help, and there are other links here which will help. Here's a mainframe resources site

Note that if you're running IBM S/390, version 2.5 is not compliant, apparently v2.8 is the upgrade you want. (someone reposted from bit.listserv.ibm-main) Find references to this on Dejanews, or at the IBM site. That last URL may be wrong, I'm offline and did it from memory.

This site provides y2k bug fixes and examples at the detailed coding level. I haven't had a chance to find out what languages are supported here.

Here is a shareware tool (no line number limits) that claims to reformat COBOL in a more readable form. Can't comment, I don't do COBOL. Some of you may find this helpful.

If you can't find it anywhere else, try here and click the link.

Embedded Systems:
Basically, if there's a way of getting a date into whatever piece of equipment you've got, from your car to the elevator, to medical test equipment you are responsible for set the clock for 11:56 PM 12/31/1999 and see what happens. Make sure whoever fixes your equipment is within call if you do that test, people who've tried this with their security systems have found that nobody in the building has passkeys that'll let them into the building anymore. (actually, for security systems, read the docs first, it may well be what this test will show is that nobody has logged in between whenever you test and 1/1/2000...) I take no responsibility for the results of this one... but if your equipment tanks due to this, at least you'll be able to get it fixed NOW. Many people have already tried real life tests and had their equipment or worse, their factories tank. The Incidents section has examples.

Here's a good FAQ for those new to the embedded systems problem. Embedded System FAQ.

Here is an excellent paper on possible embedded system Y2K trouble from a major embedded systems (PLC, etc.) manufacturer, ABB.

If your building has any embedded systems, get going on a fix NOW. Click to see why.

• This site is a well-recommended y2k embedded info page.
• This may be the mother lode for compliance information. This is the EDS compliance database, "thousands of vendors, tens of thousands of products." Vendor 2000. While this won't get you off the hook on testing, the information on what products are not will save you a lot of time.
• Here is a compliance database from the UK Powys Training and Enterprise Council.
• Here is a US Army Corps of Engineers fire equipment database. Y2K Fire Alarm and Protection Systems Vendor Data.
• IEE (Institute of Electrical Engineers, the UK version of IEEE)y2k embedded systems page.

  Here is their Embedded Systems Fault CasebookHere is a sample quote:
  May 1999
  EXAMPLE NO EG-07
  Equipment Type: DCS
  Industry Sector: Oil & Gas
  PC or Computer based: No
  System Age: 6 years
  Application
  DCS control system control for petrochemical plant
  Description of the Problem :
  Online rollover to Year 2000
  How was it Identified:
  During testing. Offsite testing on a testbed was performed with satisfactory results. Upon testing of stations on site, control was no longer possible after the system had rolled over to Year 2000. It was not until this problem was evident on three of the four operating stations was testing aborted.
  What was the Solution:
  No known workaround. Plant had to be operated from one station until problem could be rectified
  Consequences for the SYSTEM: System Stops
  Consequences of failure to the BUSINESS :
  Near catastrophic. Limited reliability and operability of plant.
  Reduced production

• Is medical technology your problem area? Try Scottish Healthcare Supplies Year 2000 web site. It has actual lists of non-compliant medical devices and what's wrong with them and lists of devices currently under investigation, among other things. Another site is Rx2000 has more medical-related year 2000 information. Also check out medical equipment compliance chart. An Australian medical equipment compliance database.
• FDA medical equipment compliance information. Here's another one. The databases may be the same, I haven't had time to look.
• Are your embedded problems on board a ship? The information at Ship2000 from organizations like Lloyd's Register may keep you from having to walk home from the middle of the Pacific.
• Here's a PLC scanning tool you might want to check into, manufacturer claims that it'll handle year 2000 problems in a variety of different PLC's from AB, GE, Modicon, and Siemens. Find out more here.
• Your embedded equipment is vital, undocumented, has unrecognizable internal part numbers, you can't replace it, and you must find out if it'll blow up on New Year's Eve? If you get one or more electronic techs or engineers, one or more software engineers who handle assembly language, and this product from Embedded Science, you might have some chance of solving your problem. It's intended to clip to an embedded microprocessor and as I understand it, identify it's type, track its operations, and record the output. Not an endorsement, I personally haven't used it. However, this sounds like the class of tool I'd want in the kind of trouble you are in. I'd rather have a conventional logic / software analyzer, but to use them, you have to know what kind of chip, etc. Good luck, you'll need it, and you have my sincerest hopes for your success. (that device might be in the power plant down the street from me!) But do a Web search for the vendor's site and find their Y2K compliance section first. 
• This Y2K video promotional site put together an awesome list of categorized y2k embedded links including y2k vendors, elevators, HVAC, Fire Safety, Security, Utility, Water, Elevators, Embedded Systems Consultants and Vendors, US Government and Associations, Canadian Government and Associations, Outside of North America Government & Associations Links.
• Here is a wide range of product compliance information supplied by Simplex.
• Here is the GSA searchable database of building-related vendor compliance information(elevators, HVAC controls, alarms, and security systems) The bad news is that the search function wasn't working correctly when I last looked. (8/9/1998)
• More compliance information can be found at Y2Kbase "The Y2Kbase.com site, which began operations in March, takes its Y2K compliance information from about 1,500 corporate Web sites, said Shafer, a San Francisco developer of e-commerce Web sites who runs the Y2K site as a sideline." The person running the site says that they will attempt to locate Y2K compliance information not already available at the site.
• If you've got a cash register / POS (Point of Sale terminal) based on a personal computer, the real-time clock fixes above should work for you, though I can't tell you whether or not they'll be compatible with your software. If yours is a cheaper model not based on a personal computer, you might try setting the clock for 12/31/1999 11:59 yourself and see what happens. If the date doesn't roll over correctly, try resetting it for 1/1/2000 and see what happens. If neither works, contact your manufacturer and see if an upgrade will be available. If not, there are new cash registers in your future. The first lawsuit based on this issue already hit the courts. If you're buying POS or cash registers NOW, make certain they are compliant, and if the salesman doesn't know what you mean, talk to the manufacturer

The odds that anyone will be available on 1/1/2000 to fix your problem basically suck. There are only so many people with the technical skills to fix these problems and I expect them all to get called at once in any areas in which the phones and power are up.

Real Life Y2K-Related Incidents

• Here are some Y2K-related incidents which have already happened!
• Newspaper report on current large organization Y2K computer failures. (5/1999)
• Cassandra Project analysis of why Y2K presents a threat to the public health and safety, and a few more date related incidents.
• real life tests.
• This isn't an incident per se, it's an article on the number of large companies reporting current Y2K related problems.
• Here are some specific incident reports. Computerworld article.
• This Y2K situation is expected to cost Medicare patients over $570 million.

More Y2K Links

Note that if you don't find the information you need anywhere on this page, the answer to your question may only be a link of two away:

• Year 2000 InstituteThis page covers a wide range of Y2K hardware and software remediation issues and points you at downloadable information and applications to help you fix them. I recommend it.
• Computer Currents: Personal Computers and Y2K.
  PC users should go here. Ignore what he says about simply checking it by setting DATE and TIME from DOS, but this article does have some good info in it.
  Mac users should go here.
  Here is more information, including compliance information for major vendors. Note that if the product is really important to you, go to the vendor site and check it there.
• I now recommend that people who need Microsoft OS (DOS / Win3.x / Win9x / WinNT) and product information (e.g. Word and Excel) go to: PC Profile MS Y2K. You will have a much easier time finding the relevant information on the MS site. It's also easier to link to a single address and let the people at pcprofile take care of getting the links upgraded. If you are using WinNT servers, though, instead of installing the MS product fixes, I think you should consider upgrading to some flavor of unix in the unlikely event that your organization has time to do this. In case you missed it, here's the link to get you directly to the MS WinNT4 service release which will allegedly make your NT system Y2K and Euro ready. Of course, given MS's past record, this is unlikely to be the last Y2K fix you'll have to download.

  To use these MS information pages, including the ones linked from PC Profile, you'll have to register, after which you'll go right to the page. Personally, I don't see where you as a MS product user have a whole lot of choice. You'll even have to accept their cookies. This is what MS has to say about it's products, though given the lack of 4 letter words, you probably should consider their remarks neither accurate nor complete. For what MS is NOT telling you, check links below.

  Microsoft gives confusing answers about Y2K.

  If you've got time to upgrade from NT to unix, check intoLinux,FreeBSD, and if you insist on paying for a PC style unix, BSDI. You will get better hand-holding for what you will pay them. If you need another reason than Y2K to switch to (whatever)ix, see what Microsoft employees on NT and here and unix vs. NT white paper

• It's known that earlier versions of Quicken aren't compliant, they were written that way on purpose. there's a class action suit in progress. For some reason, Quicken is promising a Y2K-compliant upgrade for customers of these non-complient programs. After checking your applications, then check the data files, databases, spreadsheets, etc. for 2 digit date fields. If you've got a business of reasonable size, read the SBA and other stuff on year 2000 remediation you can access via site links from here and other places.
• This is a link to a downloadable shareware y2k scan tool application, for checking for y2k trouble with your applications in Windows and Mac environments.
• This site is claimed to contain "software fixes for 10's of thousands of manufacturer 'fixes' for non compliant files."
• This will get you to an Apple Y2K. This will also give you information on how to test applications the manufacturer no longer supports, possibly due to non-existence.
• This link will get you to third party Y2K compliance test results for 50 major software packages. Viasoft tests. You might find a look at the rest of the site of interest, they have an automated remediation suite (As I understand it goes through data files and flags and/or fixes non-Y2K compliant references in databases, spreadsheets, etc.) A demo download is available.
• Norton 2000 is supposed to use a compliance database and data file scanning to find problems.
• You can get to the excellent comp.software.year-2000 "smallish FAQ" here. There is good technical information there that isn't anywhere on this page.
• There's a product from Platinum that's supposed to be useful in uncovering Y2K problems in Excel / Lotus / MS Access / VBasic / etc. Another product with similar claims is pc/network remediation suite it claims to work from a database of 30,000 software packages, and to handle Windows 9x-NT / Mac / Novell / unix (soon).
• Norton 2000 is the first "brand name" remediation suite whose claims are similar to the above.
• Y2KCulture deals with the interesting and often weird cultural and business phenomena surrounding year-2000. Try here for a Martha Stewart style y2k approach, and here's y2k for kids article, complete with link to the coloring book on y2k put out by the CIA.
• Are you a retailer? Check the National Retail Federation Y2K site. Covers things from EDI to . . .
• Electric Utilities and Year 2000
• Public Utiliies and Y2K - Wired. The news isn't good, but it could be worse.
• The main US Government Y2K site. To find out what Koskinen thinks you should be discussing in your community about Y2K, click here. Warning, there's less there than meets the eye. "
• The Year 2000 Information Center / Millennium Bug
• Year 2000 Links - good stuff here.
• Y2KToday. It's listed here because it appears to have major corporate funding and may be useful someday, though that day may be in 2001 or so. Right now, the content is repackaged press releases from people who can be most charitably described as "well intentioned buy not too clear on the concept". It's a waste of time at this point.
• Usenet comp.software.year-2000 Be careful on this newsgroup, it's a mixture of those who do not know what they are talking about and the people who are actually getting paid to fix the problems.
• IEEE Computer Y2K links
• This is an e-zine which provides the latest news stories around the world connected with Y2K. Y2Knews.
• Westergaard Y2K strategic analysis of the Year 2000 problem. Interesting information here.
• The real-life process of fixing big iron... as in big IBM mainframes. Like the ones that run Master Card billing. Also here is a link on how to build a "Time Machine" simulator for finding Y2K problems on IBM mainframes. When you look at this process, note how long it takes, and that there are a lot of mainframe companies that affect your health and safety that haven't even started yet.
• A transcript of the entire first hour of the May 25, 1999 US Senate testimony on Y2k preparedness and the media's responsibility in communicating Y2k issues can be access through this thread. Transcript of oral remarks is now in the public domain. Transcriptionist requests donations for her work, but transcript can be copied and distributed free of charge. Get it here.
• US Businesses should know that the IRS has new tax rules regarding the treatment of year-2000 expenses. An Associated Press article can be found here. "The Internal Revenue Service says it will allow full tax deductions in a single year rather than the usual three for businesses that have to repair or convert existing software..."
• Small businesses in the US now have access to a $500 million dollar program to loan them money for Y2K fixes.
• For documents which will help you assess your business risks, go to the General Accounting Office Special Publications page, the y2k stuff is towards the end.
• Small Business Administration Y2K site, SBA also has a small business Y2K help desk, 1-800-827-5722, which provides personalized response and assistance.
• Here is a page with links to ZDNet information on getting your business ready for Y2K.
• Information on insurance and year-2000 legal considerations on a wide range of business and specific computer industry issues can be found at the Gray Cary Ware & Freidenrich year 2000 page.
• This site offers a FREE SME Brochure set" for download. "We offer a business perspective of solutions for your desktop Year 2000 PC and business survival! (quote from their ad copy... have not had time to check this, download it and let me know.)
• This link will take you to a collection of Declan Mc Cullough's articles for Time and Netly News on year 2000. He's one of the rare real long-time Internet / computer people who actually has a presence in the mainstream press. This link is especially good for non-computer types who would like stuff written for a non-tech audience.
• Here's Mark Mercer's year 2000 page. Some good links here I missed.
• Do you develop in Javascript? Here are a couple of fixes which may insure your scripts won't celebrate New Year's Day 2000 by packing it in. Click hereand here.
• Here's the transcript of a conference at the Center for Strategic and International Strategic Studies about the larger impacts of Y2K.
• This is a list of links to organizations which can help with a wide range of compliance issues. Need help on medical compliance? Mainframe / large server compliance? Try this.
• www.y2kbarterinfo.com offers a dating service, condoms and viagra, along with oil lamps, solar ovens, barter information and books...
• Y2K legal aspects
• Some rather useful looking links, check out the rest of the site as well.
• Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums. This is a worst case look at apocalypse-2000. If nowhere near enough is done, it will come to pass...He recommends survivalist level preparations, and he isn't the only one. They might be a good idea. Part of where he's coming from is a fairly serious Christian Right political bias. Read it for the "what can go wrong" and the survivalist stuff.
• An insight into the personalities of those who actually have technical knowledge and are denying that year-2000 will be a big problem.
• Y2K-the movie from Computerworld: The New York Post reports that Warner Brothers Studios is developing a techno-thriller starring Chris O'Donnell called Y2K.
• Web Sites Who Refer People to These Web Pages is a nice collection of reviewed links by Roleigh Martin.
• Mother of all y2k link centers. This site has hundreds, possibly thousands of links broken down by category. If you have a concern not addressed anywhere else on this page, go to this site.
• Links to Y2K tools from Defense Information Services Agency. There's supposed to be an evaluation on this site somewhere of remediation tools, haven't found it there if one exists. If you can't find what you're looking for elsewhere, it might be linked to that page, remember that the US military probably uses some form of every computing environment in existence and a few that are best forgotten.
• UNRELIABLE embedded misinformation can be found atclaims of embedded special problems. Many non-technically inclined people have been using this page as a reliable discussion of embedded system problems. Unless this document is massively revised, which it hasn't been as of 10/17/1998 it contains many assertions which just aren't so. Embedded system information articles need to be written by people who actually know about them from experience or have gotten their information from people who do.

Food Storage / Preservation Links

I'll put in more links as I find them, I'll also put links to commercial long-term food storage food providers around here.

• STORING DESIGNER AND CONVENIENCE FOODS should help you with the non-specialized stuff you can get at the grocery store.
• Here is a much more complete list of shelf lives of just about every kind of food likely to be at your grocery store.
• This is the Usenet newsgroup rec.food.preserving FAQ. Mostly info on canning, dehydrating, pickling, meat / fish / vegetable curing and smoking, distilling. Looks interesting. Download this, it'll take you a while to read.
• Check out a textbook on food storage from the Utah State University Extension. Download it. It requires you have the Acrobat Acrobat reader installed, but if you're reading this via any commonly used Web browser, you've probably got it. It's a common-sense approach to food storage, oriented towards storing what you actually eat. It's about a megabyte, so it'll take you a few minutes to download,
• Food storage list for 4 people / 90 days.
• Home freeze-drying MAY be practical, check here and the Walden Foods discussion of freeze drying.
• Walden Foods discussion of emergency food planning; how much and what: click here. This includes spreadsheets designed to tell you if the food you plan to store meets RDA (Recommended Daily Allowance) standards on nutrition required to maintain good health. The Walden Foods site is indeed as good as I've heard, explore it!
• Here is Misc.Survivalism's Food Storage FAQ, also at this page in downloadable zip format. (yes, do download it!)
• Lumen Foods offers a wide range of soy protein based meat / dairy substitutes both packaged as meals and in synthetic meats which "have the look, taste, and texture of a wide range of meats " which are economical and have long shelf lives. Their meal packages have things like Chicken A La King, Beef Stroganoff, Sweet 'n Sour Chicken at prices like $48-70 for 250 serving packages. I'd get one of their sampler packages first, after a disaster begins is a very bad time to discover that you hate the food you purchased. Also remember that you'll need water and heating facilities to prepare these meals. Making sure you like foods before ordering them in quantity is important if you're buying unfamiliar products in quantity.
• Food Storage shows the LDS (Mormon) 1 year food storage plan, a 72 hour emergency evacuation kit (different emphasis than the one above), specifics on first aid supplies, and suggested extensions for the basics shown. Read this carefully. What appears to have been left out of the LDS 1 year kit is a grain mill to grind grain into flour and an oven (camp type reflector oven or RV, though a home gas oven probably can be made to work on propane) that is not dependent on utility availability. Also check into Mormon / LDS canneries in your local area. Here is a list current as of 7/1998. As of this writing (8/30/1998), they are happy to offer non-Mormons advice and assistance in preparing food for long-term storage (the cans, the oxygen absorbers, etc.) at incredibly low prices, one person who used them quoted 57 cents a can. Haven't used this myself, but I plan to check into this for my own purposes sometime soon. Take advantage of this while you can, when large numbers of the general public suddenly get interested in Y2K preparation, they'll probably have to limit their existence to members of their own church. At this point, scheduling an appointment to use the facility takes several weeks in some areas, so call as soon as you know you're going to need them.
• Glitchproof has food storage preparation materials and other worthwhile things for people who want to do-it-yourself for long-term food storage.
• Given that it is getting increasingly difficult to find places which have current stock of long-term storage foods, people are turning increasingly to renting a nitrogen tank for a do-it-yourself approach to packaging in the oxygen-free manner required for long-term storage. While finding nitrogen tanks is easy and nitrogen is cheap, the problem with this is that not enough of the oxygen is displaced to keep molds and other things from growing all the time. So throw in a small oxygen absorber when you fill your storage containers with food and nitrogen. You can get them from the Glitchproof link immediately above. (more detailed information when I've got it)
• More food storage.
• Here's some more detailed disaster preparation information. While the site has more religious orientation than I would prefer, that goes with the traditional "survivalist" scene. Advice on a 3 day emergency evacuation kit, water storage, food storage / what to store for 2 weeks (might make a good start on Y2K season preparation), The onsite story about the White House sending a huge order to a dehydrated food vendor is suspect, the White House has direct access to military non-perishable food and probably has already laid in a few tons. These people have gone through major disasters, the site owners live in hurricane country.
• Finally, remember to lay in a stock of multi-vitamins for everyone in the household and take them regularly. Medical care may not be readily available and therefore, you are going to want to stay healthy, even if your diet isn't as well balanced as it should be.

Firearms

If you plan to buy guns, get them NOW. If possible, buy from private parties guns which you are reasonably certain have not been stolen. If you can avoid getting your name run through government databases of armed people, i.e. potential subversives, it's a good idea. It's only within the last couple of hours (4/23/1999) that I've come to this conclusion. The one exception is if you live in a state that has a "must issue" concealed carry permit, the convenience of being able to carry a handgun probably outweighs the fact that you'll wind up in a state database.

Here's a SF Examiner story about the second batch of gun control laws in the wake of Littleton. One of the proposed bills was for banning sales of all guns without the specific approval of the Secretary of the Treasury. Also note that some of the bills have GOP support as well. I've heard about recent lawsuits against firearms manufacturers by major cities (San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley) attempting to make them financially responsible for misuse of firearms. These lawsuits are intended either to drive gun manufacturers out of business or force them to drastically increase their prices out of reach of the average citizens.

If you are to the political left of Hitler and you are still wondering if you need a gun, or concerned about "political correctness", check out Shadowgov.com as a prime example of why. Their main purpose is to set up a parallel government to that of the United States, and to take over should the US colapse. After that, they want to start by making it a capitol crime to perform or advocate the right to: abortion, gay and lesbian relationships ... Whether you like the above or not, acting on the idea of hijacking the mechanism of governmnet to impose religious tyranny should be opposed by just about everyone, by armed force if need be. In the event that the Feds shut down, either temporarily or permanently, we may not be able to depend on them or police to keep people like that in their cages.

You have a choice here. The politicians who are telling you we need to lock up all the guns are the same people who are telling you that there will be no significant problems for Y2K. Unless they have Y2K compliant crystal balls and know the future, anyone who tells you this is either a liar or a fool. If you don't believe them on Y2K, you should not believe them on gun control issues, either. The common thread here is "do you believe that the government can protect you if you do what they want you to do?" If you believe that they can, why are you here? The bottom line here is new laws will make your purchase of firearms much more difficult.

GET GUNS WHILE YOU STILL CAN.

Besides, I've heard a lot of reports that say that there are supply problems with respect to popular makes, models, types, and calibers of various firearms. You may be lucky enough to have access to gun dealers who are in stock on what you're looking for. If you wait, that dealer might not be in stock for a few days, weeks, or months. This page isn't intended to discuss Littleton or gun control. Now for some practical advice.

The survivalist firearms FAQ.

For a first-time buyer, for around the house, a 12 gauge shotgun, pump or automatic, using #6 or #8 shot... is a good choice; i.e. enough to blow a big hole in the target, not enough to blow holes through multiple walls, and easy to aim. If you expect to be using it outdoors more, get #4 buckshot. Get a 20" deer slug barrel if you have the option. The shorter barrel makes for easier handling and a test report I've seen says you don't give up that much range. The good thing about a pump is that it has a certain psychological intimdation value, the ker-clack of a round being loaded into a pump action shotgun chamber will get the attention of potential targets. Also, if you're rural, it will knock over medium size game and birds, which might be helpful if the food chain really gets fubared.

Handguns can be a good thing... 9 mm is very popular these days. Warning, they take lots of practice. If you live in a state where concealed carry permits are available, seriously consider getting one. (Of course, if law and order really break down, concealed carry permits won't matter much, you might want to be visibly armed anyway..)

You may find a laser sight helpful, the prices are dropping. If you do, get extra batteries, preferably rechargable via solar recharger if this can be managed. If you already shoot, you know what you like and why. . . have fun . . . and may you never have to use it on a live target. Laser pointers probably can be mounted in scope rings. I saw one at a local 99 cent store for $7.

Rifles are best suited for distance shooting. They make the most sense in a situation where civilization is going to be down for a while and you need a tool capable of "reaching out and touching" someone or something at quite a distance. The something might be a cute little bunny rabbit who plans to eat your food crop before you do, a marauder, or a deer you thought might look good on your dinner plate. For "vermin" and cheap practice, get a .22 semiautomatic. More p owerful assault rifles (Ruger Mini-14, AR-15, AK-47, SKS are examples, the last one is fairly cheap) really are good at killing people. . . and deer. Think about a scope-sighted bolt-action hunting rifle for serious hunting. More later. . . after all, this is supposed to be a computer-oriented page.

If you get a gun, make sure you are willing to use it if necessary (a threat to your life / safety and/or those of others, or to shoot dinner) and get enough gun range time in to make sure the lead will go where you intended it to go. Be polite and friendly at a gun range, no matter how insane the political discussion. the person who can tell you how not to keep hooking your shots to the right will probably be a friendly, nice member of the Religious Right. The good news. A gun doesn't care about your religion or politics. For gun related information, check out the National Rifle Association site. Whatever you think of their politics, these people do know guns. What they can tell you may keep you alive someday. Useful information can also be found at www.recguns.com. I've seen it recommended for information on gun choice and defensive shooting.

Year 2000 Books

Remember that you should be able to get some books listed here through public libraries, etc., you don't have to buy what you see here to become informed. Of course, if you do buy via Amazon Books what you see listed here via link from this page, I get a commission. At this point, I've been too busy researching online to do any print reading on Y2K, so if there's something you've seen you think others need to know about, please catch me in e-mail. What's here is based on what appears to be competent recommendation. For reviews and ordering information, see below.

• "Year 2000 Solutions for Dummies", Bourne, (Dummies Press)
• "How to 2000" by Raytheon E-Systems (IDG Books)
• "COBOL, Dates and the Year 2000" ?? (???) This is for mainframe environments, so if COBOL doesn't sound familiar, you probably don't need to read this.

While I do plan to link any book listings you see here individually to Amazon Books to allow you to see book reviews and related information and to allow you to order the books conveniently, you can use the search form below in the meantime:

This form will, of course, find anything that's at Amazon Books, not just my recommended reading list. Note that they are adding music and video to their products. For authors, the format is last name,first name. For books, simply type in the title.

Here is a link you need to see!

If you're finding yourself overwhelmed with the amount of info you are collecting on Y2K from mailing lists, etc., here's a text-in-file search utility for DOS. It supports Boolean searches and will search the files in an entire directory tree (including root) if you ask it to. LOOKFOR.COM Note: It won't work if you used doublespace on your HD... It can be made to work straight out of Win3.1 with the creation of a modified DOS prompt .PIF file, I don't know if the PIF will work in Win95.

A final word. The news in the US isn't all bad. Southern Electric Company announced they're Y2K-ready. A Y2K project manager from that company said the same thing weeks before. The Southeastern US will probably have power in 2000. However, this doesn't that anyone there should neglect preparation, the project manager also has said in other posts that he's ready for Y2K disaster as well.(I'll find the URLs if I ever have time.)

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Return to Home Page. Note that if you came directly to this page from a search engine or whatever, if you go to my home page, you'll find information on topics ranging from computers to mainstream / alternative news to . . . if you liked the way I selected information here, check it out.

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E-mail me at alizard@ecis.com.